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Replying to
Sandboxed Google Play are regular apps in the regular app sandbox so the implications are the same as installing other apps. It's the same permission model with the same user control over it. Google libraries within apps can connect to their services without it and some do that.
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Entirely possible for them to release a new version of the FCM library for apps to use where there's a fallback implementation within the app. It's unlikely they would do that partly since it would require a battery optimization exception from the user and a foreground service.
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Replying to and
As another example, Google's Ads SDK works without Google Play services. It falls back to a full internal implementation included in each app using it. Sandboxed Google Play is just the rest of the implementation not included in apps via Play SDK / Google libraries they use.
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If Google wanted, they could add support for sandboxed Google Play to Play services and the Play Store by making them fall back to other approaches when the privileged permissions aren't granted. Our compatibility layer simply teaches the apps to do what they already could do.
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