Option #1: NATO defends Ukraine, with a 50/50 risk of nukes.
Option #2: Putin kills millions and eventually occupies Ukraine. Then he moves to the next country, and we are back to option #1.
Option #3: Putin is overthrown from inside.
Any other options?
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Both sides “win” aka “get a way out” of a deadly and criminal standoff: Putin gets to keep occupied territories and a promise of no NATO in the Ukraine; Ukraine will have fended off a big bully and is celebrated a hero
Cost: thousands of lives not millions; bad blood etc
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Peace treaty which can be presented by both sides as a victory as soon as possible is the best case scenario.
Putin being overthrown in a popular revolution could go very wrong. Palace coup outcome doesn't seem likely with how he hand picked all those people and they fear him.
Before the invasion, Ukraine's government didn't seem to believe Putin was going to go through with it. I don't think they were simply trying to avoid panic. They would have mobilized earlier. Could have been better prepared. US definitely thought it was happening weeks earlier.
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Putin's regime massively underestimated Ukraine and the response from the rest of the world. A major problem for them is that a peace treaty with Ukraine wouldn't inherently end all the sanctions. Negotiating with Ukraine isn't enough to get them out of the mess they created.
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