I'm afraid that there doesn't seem to be a way out of this war: calling back the invasion is total loss for Putin.
What scares me the most is that currently, if the situation escalates a bit more, using nukes, even very small ones, seems like the only way out...
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Replying to
twitter.com/KofmanMichael/ worth reading. They didn't expect much resistance and didn't really treat it as a conventional war with another army. They don't need nuclear weapons to massively change approach and commit more resources.
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Long thread about how I think the first 96 hours have gone, still very early/incomplete impressions. The initial Russian operation was premised on terrible assumptions about Ukraineโs ability & will to fight, and an unworkable concept of operations. Moscow badly miscalculated. 1/
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Most of the prepared mobilized troops and equipment weren't even moved into Ukraine. They've hardly used the air force or artillery. They rushed troops and tanks with barely any logistical support along the roads expecting little resistance to meet up with paratroopers, etc.
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Extremely far from them needing to resort to nukes rather than just not rushing some vehicles along a road without real supply lines. They treated this as if it was still Ukraine from 2014 and they didn't actually need to contend with an army or determined populace / government.
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Now is a really good time to try to get a peace deal with Russia. They need to give him something he can present as a victory, so beyond simply ending sanctions.
For example, recognizing annexation of Crimea, Donbass autonomy, and at least pretending to Ukraine won't join NATO.
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Ukraine didn't seem to be on the same page as the US before the war. I think it goes beyond them not wanting to cause panic. I don't think they believed Russia was going to do this. Fortunately Russia massively fucked up and could be forced to take terms like that vs. annexation.
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Replying to
According to the thread u sent me, and my unsustained believes, we are yet to see the worst... Hopefully not nukes, but again, there doesn't see to be a way back.
Yes, if they agree to Russia's terms as u mentioned, that would be a "good ending" to this...
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Replying to
I think around now is the crucial time where it can be ended before Russia actually commits to the serious war they didn't think they would need to fight. I don't think Putin gives a shit about his people suffering, oligarchs losing money, Russians/Ukrainians dying in a war, etc.
I think it comes down to Putin deciding he needed a major win to keep himself in power and to give himself a solid legacy. Don't think he's going to back down. If he loses, he'll be remembered for that.
It's not him who has to make the sacrifices required but it is up to him.
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