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All I have to do is compromise one server to (eventually) compromise the contents of all the mirrors, and only one set of keyholders can do the core labor. So, yes, the bandwidth costs are distributed but many other important properties of the system are very much centralized.
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Linus makes the mainline releases but not the stable/longterm releases. Nearly everyone is using downstream forks of the stable/longterm kernels. Even Arch never ships mainline kernels outside [testing] anymore and has downstream patches applied despite not usually doing that.
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The mainline releases are largely only relevant to upstream kernel developers and the longterm releases are relevant to downstream kernel developers. Barely anyone is building and using those directly. Changes are usually made/shipped downstream before incorporated upstream too.
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For an example that's important to me, Clang-compiled kernels with LTO and CFI have been shipped since 2018 on Pixel phones. Support for this still isn't in mainline despite many years of them trying to land it. It's strange seeing people talk about that as if it's bleeding edge.
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At this point, I don't think it's the case that most Linux kernel development is done upstream first. Most people have given up on doing that a long time ago. You get what you need working downstream, ship it, and maybe you try to upstream it but it'll take years to see benefits.
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