Daniel Micay on Twitter: "@ciphergoth @NathanpmYoung @Dominic2306 i.e. the "nobody will do anything meaningful to stop it" in https://t.co/IV0ADAtRbA makes a lot of sense. I think the unreasonable part is assigning a >50% chance to it happening especially within 5 years. I think they'd care a lot about the diplomatic and economic consequences." / Twitter

1/ Taiwan... I'm increasingly in conversations with powerful/rich people where they talk like it's >50% China will grab Taiwan in the next 5 yrs & nobody will do anything meaningful to stop it (& that's good). What's best thing to read if you want to assess this prediction?

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I found this piece compelling scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2020/09/why-i-

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Wow that is depressing :(

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I don't think the scenario makes much sense. US doesn't recognize Taiwan as China, has no formal military alliance with them and Taiwan has yet to declare independence. It would officially be a civil war. China is the 3rd largest trading partner of the US and a nuclear power.

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They have a more recent post at scholars-stage.org/all-measures-s with much less tunnel vision on the whole fantasy invasion scenario straight out of a Tom Clancy novel. China is also a permanent member of the UNSC and isn't going to boycott it like USSR's mistake with the Korean War.

scholars-stage.org

All Measures Short of a Cross Straits Invasion

Much of what I have written about Taiwan defense issues assumes that the primary challenge facing Taiwanese forces and their allies is defeating (and thus deterring) a proper amphibious invasion. T…

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i.e. the "nobody will do anything meaningful to stop it" in twitter.com/Dominic2306/st makes a lot of sense. I think the unreasonable part is assigning a >50% chance to it happening especially within 5 years. I think they'd care a lot about the diplomatic and economic consequences.

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Dominic Cummings

@Dominic2306

Jun 16, 2021

1/ Taiwan... I'm increasingly in conversations with powerful/rich people where they talk like it's >50% China will grab Taiwan in the next 5 yrs & nobody will do anything meaningful to stop it (& that's good). What's best thing to read if you want to assess this prediction?

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3:49 AM · Jun 17, 2021Twitter Web App

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