as an update, freenode is now at 49935 users
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now it is 49740
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now, 49633
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freenode broke 50k users in 2008, so we have rolled the clock back 13 years in a month.
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now, 49546
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i think, we will shed another 100-200 users before the APAC swing brings it back over 50k for a little while
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Meanwhile Libera/Freenode is now solidly over 50%. I think the prediction is Libera > Freenode by the end of the month or so?
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matrix.org is removing their bridge to freenode from their official project rooms. Once users aren't in any bridged rooms, it will stop making a connection for them. The #matrix:matrix.org room has ~18k users, and there are a bunch of others too.
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If they killed their bridge to freenode entirely, rather than just unlinking their own rooms, it would zap a whole bunch of freenode users. Their bridge also kicks users from bridged channels and disconnects them from IRC after 30 days of not sending messages to any of them.
There are a whole bunch of pending disconnects of users bridged from Matrix that are going to happen about 30 days after the mass removal of bridges from rooms. The removal of the bridge from the official matrix.org rooms only just happened so give that 30 more days.
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Once that churn happens, the remaining freenode users are probably largely just going to be people leaving their IRC clients / bouncers running without paying attention or bothering to disconnect. I'd be more interested in some kind of activity metrics than the user count.
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