developer.android.com/about/versions is how it's going to work in Android 12 but Android 11 supposedly supports it. I don't really think it actually shipped in the intended / documented form for Android 11 though. It has constants, etc. for it but doesn't seem to be fully implemented.
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We made an attempt to use it in Android 11 (for end-to-end encrypted, non-Play backups) but it didn't really seem to exist yet at least in AOSP. I don't know how much is implemented for the stock OS. It's possible Play services has enough privileges to make it work despite that.
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Ok, let's assume Play Services replace an app on Android11 using this mechanism, and the app hasn't blacklisted its data for backup. The app icon would still disappear from your homescreen and some app settings would probably be reverted. Much more complex than pushing an update.
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It's definitely more involved but keep in mind a bunch of core OS components are also built by Google now shipped via the Play Store via APEX components (also known as mainline modules or Google Play system update):
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Android with Play is closer and closer to being Google Android instead of an OEM fork where they control everything. Of course, Android exists without Play and the CDD/CTS pass without Play services.
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Android with Play is trending towards shipping a Google-built AOSP system image and kernel. I'm sure that's coming in the next couple of years. Mainline modules shipped via Play are already here though and include code loaded into system_server etc.
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Ok, you've convinced me that if you're worried about backdoors from US state-level attackers, you shouldn't be using Google Play services.
However, there are other reasons why this is bad, for example this one:
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I wouldn't necessarily say that someone with that threat model shouldn't be using Play services but by using an OS including Play they're using an OS with highly trusted core components built and shipped by Google via the Play Store.
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Is a "privileged" install/flash of Play Services using OpenGApps different from a stock ROM that ships Play Services (with respect to system permissions)?
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As part of installing it, they need to add all the privileged permissions and whitelisting in order for it to work properly. They make an attempt to do it. It's not meant to be any less trusted. Play services is only designed to run as a privileged app with a ton of power.
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In my opinion, the ideal solution to all of this is for governments to require that Google makes Play services available as a regular app functioning without privileged permissions. Most of all the functionality could work. Backups, etc. wouldn't and it'd have more UX friction.
No automatic app updates, needing to prompt users to install or remove apps, needing to ask for a battery optimization exception, needing to run a foreground service, etc. Of course, every service provider has all these restrictions unless an OEM bundles their stuff in the OS.
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I don't think it's a good situation for operating systems to be bundling a bunch of apps and services especially in a way that privileges them above other services. It's inherently anti-competitive, even if it wasn't Apple or Google doing it with their own OS.
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