MTE being widely adopted could also lead to stronger memory tagging features. 16-bit random tags aren't going to wipe out exploitation but at the very least it'll force software to be compatible with memory safety implementations including a tag-based approach with larger tags.
I think the biggest impact will be that suddenly all software has something like ASan in production, forcing all these latent bugs that occur during regular use to be fixed. A lot of bugs will remain, but not ones that block deploying inter-object memory safety implementations.
I suspect 16 bit random tags will already have a pretty serious impact on exploitation, but we will see... perhaps i am too optimistic. I see the bypasses not necessarily coming from a lack of randomness.