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They're only losing the month of early access to the AOSP security updates. They can still ship them. Updates to firmware, drivers, etc. outside of AOSP from partners like Qualcomm is another story. They won't be losing anything they need to do those updates from Google though.
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It only really takes a day to integrate the updates from AOSP, run the full test suite and other testing. Everyone without the luxury of early access has to do that. It applies to a lot of software. 1 month of early access is really way too long esp. since so many have access.
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Yep they will be able to do the MRs and the security updates. However, they will need to change their processes concerning these updates which is a big challenges. The main issue is not having the Google Play Services
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It's not an issue within China though. Lets see how China actually responds to the boneheaded escalation of a trade war. I think they'll respond and cause 10x more US pain just like before. They can throw phony accusations at say, Apple, mirroring the US. Get the popcorn ready.
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China holding US debt is really a problem for China, not the US. The US can keep devaluing their currency and wiping out the value of that debt. If they really wanted, they could do something like distributing a huge amount of money to every citizen until that debt is worthless.
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