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The Android security updates and major version updates are completely open source. It implies that they don't receive early access to either, so maybe they wouldn't be able to get out security updates on time, but it really doesn't take a whole month to integrate and test those.
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They're also still seemingly going to be receiving updates via Google Play for existing devices. It only sounds like they'll be unable to release new devices with Google Play. It's definitely a huge problem for their international business. Interested to see the retaliation.
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Apple's devices are manufactured in China via Foxconn and heavily rely on their expertise. It's not a dumb manufacturing pipeline using solely Apple technology. China retaliating to this could involve seriously disrupting Apple's manufacturing, if they wanted to play this game.
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It's a really bad and totally unjustified move. I could definitely see China banning sales of Apple devices and making a similar move against Qualcomm's SoC / radio and other companies. That's not even getting into influence over manufacturing of devices sold internationally.
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I don't think the Chinese government is stupid enough to cripple their own economy by inserting backdoors into international products. I've never seen any credible evidence of it. It really sounds more like how the US government behaves, exactly like this boneheaded decision.
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