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Yes, I have seen a bug be made unexploitable by a mitigation. Is it the norm? Heck no. Do professional vulndevs look for bugs that fit a pattern that makes exploitation easy? Yes. Do we have evidence that mitigations regularly push bugs into nonexploitable territory? I think not.
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But I agree on one thing: If you are severely bug- and interaction-restrained, mitigations *may* make a difference. But mostly they waste some of the attackers time, and a commensurate amount of defender time, so everybody happily keeps busy to no measurable effect :)
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Memory tagging is a very loose approximation of dynamic memory safety checking though. Can have some nice deterministic guarantees like easily guaranteeing every small / linear heap overflow is caught but for arbitrary read/write it's a very low entropy probabilistic mitigation.
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I think one of the major benefits will be that it's essentially like having ASan deployed in production at a very low cost. It will be really good for eliminating large swaths of bugs by detecting them a high percentage of the time in production. Decent chance to bypass though.
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I'd really like to see proper efficient hardware support for integer overflow checking by propagating poison values internally and then trapping when attempting to use a value. Main barrier to automatic checking even in many higher level languages is the high performance cost.
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I don't like that they spend so much time adding weak mitigations like ARMv8.3 pointer authentication instead of adding building blocks for actual safety with high performance. Accumulated cost of all these weak mitigations adds up and they might as well just do the real thing.