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This is a cool account of
#automation told thru the lens of telephone operators, touching topics like how slow tech adoption can be and how rising wages incentivize automation. In this case, we know how the story ends, but how it happens is important too! https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2019/q4/economic_history …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
I'm so glad
@GoogleNews disabled the ability to remove sections so I can now see quality news content like this...
pic.twitter.com/BSwnuPlhFb
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Also reminds me of some quality reporting by
@lydiadepillis a few weeks ago highlighting how the exemption process is being gamed by big companies w/ the resources to pressure smaller competitors.https://twitter.com/lydiadepillis/status/1214198805140246528?s=20 …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Worth a read, article does a good job of emphasizing that the
#tradedeal is not resolving uncertainty for businesses given the#tariffs still in place & the opacity/inconsistency of the exemption approval process.https://twitter.com/willmauldin/status/1224329210900242434 …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
All-in-all, I'm w/ Ben on this one: I'm looking forward to seeing the revisions b/c they're helpful for understanding the labor market trajectory, esp. by industry, even though the headline revision number is technically old news and/or may end up being relatively uneventful. 5/5
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Some "fun" trivia too: it's pretty unlikely but if the downward revisions are large & lumpy enough, Feb 2019 is most likely to flip negative (only +56K), which would end our longest streak of payroll gains in American history at exactly 100 months.
4/5Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Now the boring take: -501K would be the largest since '09, but not unprecedented (there were larger revisions in '09, '06, '95, '94, '91). And -501K is an *estimate*, it's possible/likely we end up w/ a smaller revision than estimated (avg. abs. revision since '79 is 259K). 3/5pic.twitter.com/pDbhqjScUa
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^In short, it could change how we think about the labor market trajectory in 2018-9 and post-benchmark revisions will give us some insight into later 2019 data. Plus the industry-by-industry data will be interesting (e.g. retail). 2/5pic.twitter.com/elB8c1z0bh
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#ADP report for Jan showed +291K jobs added, well above expectations. Would be very surprised to see this translate 1:1 into the#JobsReport on Fri given the size of the surprise & given weakening employer demand data we're seeing on@Glassdoor.Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Daniel Zhao proslijedio/la je Tweet
Quick take on we're watching for
@Glassdoor in Friday's January BLS jobs report:https://www.glassdoor.com/research/bls-predictions-january-2020/ …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Well, at least we know one job that'll be safe from automation/AI.
#IowaCaucusHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
For more data, including breakdowns by metro, more specific industries, job titles and more, check out our full report linked below. 5/5https://www.glassdoor.com/research/job-market-report-january-2020/ …
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Pay growth did accelerate to 2.6% YoY, but this is an artifact of weak pay in the same period last year. Pay actually decreased month-over-month in
@Glassdoor data. In coming months, we expect our data to show the same slowing wage growth trend seen in#JobsReport & ECI. 4/5pic.twitter.com/akY0o4DGF6
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Service slowdown in our data is concerning since they've been a pillar of job gains this expansion. And trade-exposed industries are likely to continue to flag (despite Phase 1
#tradedeal) b/c of uncertainty & supply chain disruption from the coronavirus outbreak in China. 3/5Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Decline in open jobs was largely driven by two sets of industry groups: white-collar services (business services, finance & insurance,
#tech) and trade-exposed industries (#manufacturing, trade & transportation) ... 2/5pic.twitter.com/h3sXC6qKlp
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First
@Glassdoor Job Market Report of the new year showed U.S. job openings declining 3.1% YoY in Jan—worst performance in 3 yrs and 2nd straight month of YoY declines. Question is how long it'll take for this reduced employer demand to translate into#JobsReport figures. 1/5pic.twitter.com/GlCGEZrrZf
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Daniel Zhao proslijedio/la je Tweet
Labor Department revisions out this Friday are likely to show fewer jobs added than initially reported in 2019. The impact? "The biggest risk this Friday may be psychological.”
@DanielBZhao tells@WSJecon’s@jeffsparshotthttps://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2020/02/04/newsletter-manufacturing-tries-to-turn-the-corner/ …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Labor market is so tight that the Iowa Democratic Party clearly had some trouble hiring app developers.
#IACaucusHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
The health care polling differences between candidates are pretty interesting, would be curious to see it nationallyhttps://twitter.com/kt_prry/status/1224509234949300224 …
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And it's useful to see the data confirm that some findings from FT jobs apply to internships e.g. disadvantage to black-sounding names or candidates who live further away.
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