Daniel Zhao

@DanielBZhao

Economist / Data Scientist at . Formerly , . Maryland born and raised.

Vrijeme pridruživanja: srpanj 2012.

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  1. prije 8 sati

    This is a cool account of told thru the lens of telephone operators, touching topics like how slow tech adoption can be and how rising wages incentivize automation. In this case, we know how the story ends, but how it happens is important too!

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  2. prije 17 sati

    I'm so glad disabled the ability to remove sections so I can now see quality news content like this... 🙄

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  3. prije 18 sati

    Also reminds me of some quality reporting by a few weeks ago highlighting how the exemption process is being gamed by big companies w/ the resources to pressure smaller competitors.

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  4. prije 18 sati

    Worth a read, article does a good job of emphasizing that the is not resolving uncertainty for businesses given the still in place & the opacity/inconsistency of the exemption approval process.

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  5. prije 20 sati

    All-in-all, I'm w/ Ben on this one: I'm looking forward to seeing the revisions b/c they're helpful for understanding the labor market trajectory, esp. by industry, even though the headline revision number is technically old news and/or may end up being relatively uneventful. 5/5

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  6. prije 20 sati

    Some "fun" trivia too: it's pretty unlikely but if the downward revisions are large & lumpy enough, Feb 2019 is most likely to flip negative (only +56K), which would end our longest streak of payroll gains in American history at exactly 100 months. 💯 4/5

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  7. prije 20 sati

    Now the boring take: -501K would be the largest since '09, but not unprecedented (there were larger revisions in '09, '06, '95, '94, '91). And -501K is an *estimate*, it's possible/likely we end up w/ a smaller revision than estimated (avg. abs. revision since '79 is 259K). 3/5

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  8. prije 20 sati

    ^In short, it could change how we think about the labor market trajectory in 2018-9 and post-benchmark revisions will give us some insight into later 2019 data. Plus the industry-by-industry data will be interesting (e.g. retail). 2/5

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  9. prije 20 sati

    report for Jan showed +291K jobs added, well above expectations. Would be very surprised to see this translate 1:1 into the on Fri given the size of the surprise & given weakening employer demand data we're seeing on .

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Quick take on we're watching for in Friday's January BLS jobs report:

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  11. 4. velj

    Well, at least we know one job that'll be safe from automation/AI.

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  12. 4. velj

    For more data, including breakdowns by metro, more specific industries, job titles and more, check out our full report linked below. 5/5

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  13. 4. velj

    Pay growth did accelerate to 2.6% YoY, but this is an artifact of weak pay in the same period last year. Pay actually decreased month-over-month in data. In coming months, we expect our data to show the same slowing wage growth trend seen in & ECI. 4/5

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  14. 4. velj

    Service slowdown in our data is concerning since they've been a pillar of job gains this expansion. And trade-exposed industries are likely to continue to flag (despite Phase 1 ) b/c of uncertainty & supply chain disruption from the coronavirus outbreak in China. 3/5

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  15. 4. velj

    Decline in open jobs was largely driven by two sets of industry groups: white-collar services (business services, finance & insurance, ) and trade-exposed industries (, trade & transportation) ... 2/5

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  16. 4. velj

    First Job Market Report of the new year showed U.S. job openings declining 3.1% YoY in Jan—worst performance in 3 yrs and 2nd straight month of YoY declines. Question is how long it'll take for this reduced employer demand to translate into figures. 1/5

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  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    4. velj

    Labor Department revisions out this Friday are likely to show fewer jobs added than initially reported in 2019. The impact? "The biggest risk this Friday may be psychological.” tells ’s

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  18. 4. velj

    Labor market is so tight that the Iowa Democratic Party clearly had some trouble hiring app developers.

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  19. 4. velj

    The health care polling differences between candidates are pretty interesting, would be curious to see it nationally

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  20. 3. velj

    And it's useful to see the data confirm that some findings from FT jobs apply to internships e.g. disadvantage to black-sounding names or candidates who live further away.

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