@chrismartenson @epsilon3141 @ErikSTownsendhttps://twitter.com/NucleusWealth/status/1234314268108939267 …
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Chris and Damien, great to see you collaborating here! Question: Let's assume for sake of argument Damien is right; COVID not being disguised as VP. Ok, going with that assumption, how do we explain the low case count? My understanding is warm wx is not a factor. What else?
I'm changing all my charts from "will a pandemic occur" to "how big will it be and how long will it last". We went through all the cases we could and mapped them back to the source country (rather than the diagnosing country). I still can't get over how stark this chart is:pic.twitter.com/b3b0vtmxCj
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What is the average temperature? Season is an arbitrary qualitative category.
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"how stark this chart is". We knew this very well already 6 weeks ago, when studies reported epidemic doubling of Wuhan-outbreak as 2.4 days(!) This is devastatingly fast pathogen, respiratory, no herd-immunity. Not an epidemiologist but it was plain clear when I read the paper.
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I'm not talking about how steep the line is. That part I get. It is the yellow line at the bottom that you might have missed. This is the sum of all cases with transmission (not diagnosis) in either summer or equatorial countries.
End of conversation
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I would please like some help to explain this chart. Would you expect Covid19 to increase in countries where the season is summer right now? What is the lower temperature boundary for summer season it this graph?
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An average temperature would suffice. Of course once summer countries enter autumn, we expect the second wave, correct?
End of conversation
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Season/Temp. has negligible impact on pandemic pathogens. We saw that in 2009 swine flu pandemic. All the press was like "it slows in the warmer season". 3 months later, the main pandemic wave hit New York at the very height of summer.
End of conversation
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I wonder how Southern California will fare given this information? Any speculations anyone???
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