John Dalhuisen

This is the migration conundrum: those who want to control borders are faced with a choice between closed or open ones unless they address how arriving migrants are processed and those without claims are returned.

Commission concept notes on "Controlled Centres" in EU and "Regional Disembarkation Platforms" outside it are weak. No idea what is needed to make former work - and no interest in making latter Refugee Convention compliant, even if they could find hosts. http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-4629_en.htm …

Preserving a perfect system in Europe (as though it ever were!) that refugees do not have access to is a very bad outcome for refugees (and other migrants). There is, as Merkel says, a battle for Europe’s soul, and only control-with-soul will save it.

If anyone is still in doubt, look, for a cautionary tale, at how Australian politics has internalised Nauru.

Saving the refugee convention in the central med - i.e ensuring access to EU territory for refugees - requires a radical shift in how arrivals are processed and an increase in returns. There is no unblocking the Med without it. This should be obvious by now.

This should worry liberal leaders greatly. They cannot afford to lose the narrative on who has the policies to control migration and prevent deaths at sea.

Unfortunately, everyone backs Italy’s Libya policy. Which the previous left-wing government initiated and Salvini is simply taking to its logical conclusion. But only Salvini will reap the rewards, as only he can champion its excesses.

Still, the aim is nil arrivals. And ceding search and rescue to Libyan CG is necessary for this. Tolerating more deaths at sea in the short run, to end all departures in the long run, is seen by the Salvini-Orban-Kurz axis as acceptable: moral even, and key for their narrative.

The obstruction of NGO boats and the withdrawal of EU assets is increasing the death rate, but is more symbolic than significant in preventing / deterring arrivals.

The Libyan CG is very bad at rescue, but the increase in interceptions accounts for only a small proportion of the big decrease in arrivals. Other deals preventing arrivals in Libya and departures from it are “doing the work.”

Congratulations @SalilShetty. You did much - that was difficult - to change Amnesty - for the better. Profound challenges ahead for Amnesty and the broader rights movement - so best of luck to @kuminaidoo ...https://twitter.com/salilshetty/status/1014906969700950017 …