What you're seeing in the non-tenders is just the inevitable result of teams increasingly seeing $/WAR as a curve rather than a line, something that should always have been the case but empirically wasn't for the first 40 years or so of free agency.
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And the question is: how determined will a 35-year-old veteran, who feels screwed by analytics be to strike for the 21-year-old on the 40-man roster for the first time and making the ~$45K optional assignment minimum for a first timer?
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To put it in the cruelest way possible, much of baseball's salary growth historically has come from old school front offices in 70s-90s being really awful at predicting future player value.
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This is no longer the case. Even poorly run teams don't really think players enter their primes at 31 or that HR/RBI uber alles. Which means that the MLBPA has to fight for their revenue pot in different ways.
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Remember, as seen in Helyar's extensively sourced Lords of the Realm, those 80s baseball people didn't collude because they were some Machiavellian geniuses, but because Ueberroth basically browbeat them by shaming them for their incompetence.
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You know how hard I am on the Rockies? This would certainly be a top 10 front office in 1989, possibly a top 5.
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End of conversation
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and MLBPA is getting what they deserve now. They thought that by screwing over the young players, the old guys would get the money but turns out the owners are just keeping the money.
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They need a RFA system, along with a set number of years from draft/signing before UFA.
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Make players FAs the offseason after they turn 28, regardless of when they were rookies
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At the risk of opening up a bigger topic, this seems to be the flaw with many unions in the modern age. They exist largely to serve the longer-tenured members over the younger (and perhaps more efficient) members.
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