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DLeonhardt's profile
David Leonhardt
David Leonhardt
David Leonhardt
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@DLeonhardt

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David LeonhardtVerified account

@DLeonhardt

Senior writer, New York Times. You can sign up for The Morning, the daily newsletter I write, here: https://www.nytimes.com/newsletters/morning-briefing …

Washington, DC
nytimes.com/leonhardt
Joined July 2010

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    David Leonhardt‏Verified account @DLeonhardt Mar 8

    Early in the pandemic, many people thought the death toll in lower-income countries would be much worse than in the U.S. and Europe. But it hasn't been. This is one of those pieces of good news that we journalists sometimes ignore or dismiss. So what's going on? 🧵....

    5:44 AM - 8 Mar 2021
    • 162 Retweets
    • 416 Likes
    • LECTUM BTC Cara Penny Jason Bobe Boril Gourinov Somesh Jha Raji Pillai, PhD she/ her Abhijit Chavan Aman Vishwakarma 🇮🇳 Francis Rønnestad
    49 replies 162 retweets 416 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. David Leonhardt‏Verified account @DLeonhardt Mar 8

        First, the basic facts: The virus has killed a fraction of as many people in Africa and Asia — despite their relative lack of resources — as it has in Europe or the U.S:pic.twitter.com/TiSqpSJJCf

        11 replies 22 retweets 90 likes
        Show this thread
      3. David Leonhardt‏Verified account @DLeonhardt Mar 8

        It's "an epidemiological whodunit," as @DrSidMukherjee has written.https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/03/01/why-does-the-pandemic-seem-to-be-hitting-some-countries-harder-than-others …

        8 replies 8 retweets 68 likes
        Show this thread
      4. David Leonhardt‏Verified account @DLeonhardt Mar 8

        First: Is it a statistical mirage? Almost certainly not. There is underreporting of deaths in many countries, but not enough to explain the pattern. The data on *overall* mortality in Mumbai and Delhi, for instance, suggests a much lower Covid death rate than in the US.

        4 replies 9 retweets 75 likes
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      5. David Leonhardt‏Verified account @DLeonhardt Mar 8

        One factor: Covid is more severe for older people, and the population in much of Africa and Asia is younger than in the U.S. and Europe. But this age pattern also does not seem to be a full explanation for the pattern. Even age-adjusted, Asia's and Africa's tolls look low.

        1 reply 8 retweets 90 likes
        Show this thread
      6. David Leonhardt‏Verified account @DLeonhardt Mar 8

        Plausible explanation #2: Daily life tends to better ventilated in warmer, lower-income countries. Covid spreads less easily in these settings than it does in poorly ventilated indoor spaces. (Lesson for the US: Improve ventilation in schools, stores and workplaces.)

        3 replies 17 retweets 145 likes
        Show this thread
      7. David Leonhardt‏Verified account @DLeonhardt Mar 8

        Explanation #3: Immunity may vary across countries, because of previous coronaviruses or microbes. “There is a lot of circumstantial evidence,” Salim Abdool Karim, a South African epidemiologist, says, “but there is no smoking gun"...https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-africa-mortality-i/puzzled-scientists-seek-reasons-behind-africas-low-fatality-rates-from-pandemic-idUSKBN26K0AI …

        4 replies 7 retweets 70 likes
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      8. David Leonhardt‏Verified account @DLeonhardt Mar 8

        ... The large share of asymptomatic infections in India is consistent with this hypothesis, Dr. Gagandeep Kang, a virologist in the southern city of Vellore, says.https://www.ft.com/content/07988f31-d511-4af4-8b78-03ecaf2d4df7 …

        1 reply 3 retweets 58 likes
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      9. David Leonhardt‏Verified account @DLeonhardt Mar 8

        Explanation #4: Parts of Africa and Asia have better Covid policy responses than the U.S. “Africa is doing a lot of things right the rest of the world isn’t,” says Gayle Smith, a former Obama administration official....https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-ghana-africa-pandemics-donald-trump-0a31db50d816a463a6a29bf86463aaa9 …

        2 replies 11 retweets 81 likes
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      10. David Leonhardt‏Verified account @DLeonhardt Mar 8

        ... As with some other explanations, though, this one seems incomplete. Some countries with relatively low death tolls, like India, have not had especially strong policy responses.

        10 replies 5 retweets 55 likes
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      11. David Leonhardt‏Verified account @DLeonhardt Mar 8

        The full explanation for the relatively low Covid death toll in most of Africa and Asia remains unclear. Whatever it is, it’s one of the few ways in which Covid has not been as bad as feared. Many people are still alive as a result.https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/08/briefing/oprah-meghan-interview-biden-stimulus-bill.html?action=click&module=Briefings&pgtype=Homepage …

        40 replies 13 retweets 93 likes
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      12. End of conversation

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