More from the paper: - In elections decided by a percentage point or less (equal to 1.3 million votes by 2016 turnout), the probability of "inversion" (pop vote loser wins) is 40%. - For races decided by two percentage points or less, the probability is about 30%.
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in short: the electoral college is a necessary tool for enforcing the deeply historic American value that Democrats don't deserve win national elections unless they win the popular vote by at least three percentage points
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Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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seems fair
#notThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Except that the Dems didn't win 50.3% of the vote in 2000. The influence of third party candidates, especially in close states like FL 2000, cannot just simply be willed away. Only loser with >50% of vote is 1876 Tilden. Paper should be rejected due to selective data bias.
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Lest anyone think that third party candidates only hurt Democrats, it's pretty clear that the 1992 Ross Perot candidacy hurt Geo H W Bush way more than it hurt Clinton. If Bush gets 2 of every 3 Perot votes, he wins the popular vote with about 50.38%.
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