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DAlperovitch's profile
Dmitri Alperovitch
Dmitri Alperovitch
Dmitri Alperovitch
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@DAlperovitch

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Dmitri AlperovitchVerified account

@DAlperovitch

Focus: Geopolitics, National Security, Great Power Competition, Cybersecurity. Chairman @SilveradoPolicy; Founder @alperovitch; Co-Founder @CrowdStrike

USA
silverado.org
Joined June 2011

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    Dmitri Alperovitch‏Verified account @DAlperovitch Mar 1

    Now that the Russians have switched tactics from pursuing a rapid victory on the cheap (failed miserably) and reverted to the mean of leveling Ukrainian cities to the ground like they did with Grozny and Aleppo, the goals of the operation are likely changing as well 🧵

    1:31 pm - 1 Mar 2022
    • 6,270 Retweets
    • 24,245 Likes
    • Sophia realStupidDonaldTrump Øyvind Røst Belle-fille in Oz Wanderkalli Marcelo Imperatore X🃏Y Celena 🌻 🇺🇦🇺🇲☕️Coffee&Robots🤖🌊🇺🇦🇺🇲
    313 replies . 6,270 retweets 24,245 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Dmitri Alperovitch‏Verified account @DAlperovitch Mar 1

        If at the start Putin was trying to go for a quick decapitation of Ukrainian leadership and installation of a pro-Russian leader (eg Medvedchuk), that seems completely unrealistic now (if it ever were) since he has pretty much turned the entire Ukrainian population against Russia

        21 replies . 596 retweets 6,456 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Dmitri Alperovitch‏Verified account @DAlperovitch Mar 1

        He also doesn't have the time to engage in a brutal occupation given the internal pressures that are already starting to materialize inside Russia

        9 replies . 386 retweets 5,493 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Dmitri Alperovitch‏Verified account @DAlperovitch Mar 1

        A number of Russian oligarchs, actors, TV personalities, etc are coming out against this war on a scale we really haven't seen since at least the First Chechen War in the 1990s

        22 replies . 790 retweets 7,695 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Dmitri Alperovitch‏Verified account @DAlperovitch Mar 1

        The unpopularity of this war inside Russia (not to mention the universal international outrage) is going to multiply dramatically with each coming day (along with casualties)

        17 replies . 608 retweets 6,742 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Dmitri Alperovitch‏Verified account @DAlperovitch Mar 1

        Thus, Putin is going to need a resolution to the war in the next few weeks or it will create serious problems for him domestically

        17 replies . 445 retweets 5,577 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Dmitri Alperovitch‏Verified account @DAlperovitch Mar 1

        Putin also can't pull back now without losing face - having talked about Ukraine (with its mythical nuclear weapons) as an existential threat to Russia. Now that he has already incurred the severe economic sanctions costs and diplomatic isolation, he has to show something for it

        25 replies . 457 retweets 5,326 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Dmitri Alperovitch‏Verified account @DAlperovitch Mar 1

        Putin's only hope now is likely to rapidly unleash utter brutality on the Ukrainian people (which he has already started on by shooting MLRS rockets into Kharkiv and other cities) in order to get major concessions from Zelensky in the negotiations

        20 replies . 690 retweets 4,963 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Dmitri Alperovitch‏Verified account @DAlperovitch Mar 1

        Putin's minimum bar for a negotiated solution now would likely be Ukraine conceding Crimea to Russia, agreement to never join NATO and EU and some form of demilitarization (eg. no NATO infrastructure in Ukraine)

        65 replies . 421 retweets 4,392 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Dmitri Alperovitch‏Verified account @DAlperovitch Mar 1

        His problem is that it's highly unlikely that Zelensky and the rest of the Ukrainian leadership would accept these conditions so the war and the insurgency that will follow it can drag out for a long time

        18 replies . 451 retweets 5,461 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Dmitri Alperovitch‏Verified account @DAlperovitch Mar 1

        Dmitri Alperovitch Retweeted Dmitri Alperovitch

        And the longer it goes on, the more precarious Putin's position will become domestically. A palace coup is going to become increasingly likely over timehttps://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497966928815603715 …

        Dmitri Alperovitch added,

        Dmitri AlperovitchVerified account @DAlperovitch
        For the first time in 22 years, I am actually starting to believe that Putin’s hold on power may be on shaky ground. Not because of some Plpeople’s uprising—that’s a fanciful dream—but because there is now a small but non-zero chance of a palace coup 🧵
        Show this thread
        87 replies . 880 retweets 7,643 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Dmitri Alperovitch‏Verified account @DAlperovitch Mar 1

        Of course, tragically, it will also mean tens of thousands of dead civilians and unimaginable destruction in Ukraine END

        147 replies . 536 retweets 6,979 likes
        Show this thread
      13. End of conversation

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