Dmitri AlperovitchVarmennettu tili

There are numerous signals that Russia has sent recently that make me believe invasion is almost certain, as well as a substantial number of reasons for why this is the preferred route for Putin

Signal: The obvious one. The military build-up on Ukraine’s borders (in the north, east and south in Crimea). This mobilization is qualitatively and quantitatively different from the past

75% of Russia’s total battalion tactical groups have been moved. Artillery, air defense units, tanks, APCs, bridge-laying equipment, mine clearers, armored excavators, engineering equipment, refueling, huge amount of logistics, etc. Follow @RALee85 for details

This is a massive mobilization and a clear preparation for an extensive invasion, not a bluff. You also can’t keep all this equipment, troops and logistics there forever. @RALee85 thinks they would have to pull back by summer at the latest

Like a rifle in a Chekhov play, you don’t put it there if you are not expecting to use it...

Signal: Cyber prep. Since early December, there has been a dramatic increase in cyber intrusions on Ukraine government and civilian networks from Russia

Signal: Diplomatic ultimatums. The list of demands that Russia issued last week was a non-starter for the US and NATO allies. It is simply not a serious proposal for the start of the negotiations

In fact, it would likely be rejected by Russia itself if it comes to reciprocal steps to not deploy Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad and cruise-missiles in Russian western territoryhttps://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1471882542768922625?s=20 …

Signal: Making the list of demands public - and making it difficult to climb down from them without losing face - is an unprecedented diplomatic step that further signals they are not serious about having actual talks and want a propaganda pretext for invasion

Signal: Rejection of multilateral negotiations and demanding 1:1 US-RU talks. This is designed to either provoke a rejection from the US (yet another pretext for war) or drive a rift between US and its allies in Europe. Either way, a win-winhttps://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1472966543055204357?s=20 …

Signal: Demand for urgency. A real negotiation on the points Russia is raising would take years. Expecting it to be resolved quickly is unrealistic and Russia knows it. Yet another pretext for invasion by claiming the US is not serious about their concernshttps://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1472865215733809154?s=20 …

Signal: Rhetorically, things are reaching a boiling point. Diplomatic language is being thrown out the window and with each day comes a new escalationhttps://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1472962375884152835?s=20 …

Signal: The information battlefield is now being prepared for a provocation that can be pinned on Ukraine, US or NATO (or all 3). They will be used as part of an excuse to justify an invasionhttps://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1473252813773975554?s=20 …

Let’s talk now about the reasons to invade - from Putin’s perspective, which are also numerous

Reason: Fear of shifting military power balance between Kiev and Donbas separatists. Putin observed the Karabakh War last year and has a good appreciation for what a military armed with modern NATO weapons, such as Turkish TB2 drones, can do to retake territory

He has lost faith that Zelensky has any interest in resolving the issue of Donbas diplomatically and believes he needs to forestall a change in the status quo there militarily - sooner or later

Incidentally, Saakashvili’s push to rearm and take over Georgian separatist territories and change the status quo is what triggered the Georgia War in 2008. Similarities to today are eerie

Reason: Real concerns about NATO expansion. We can debate all we want about whether NATO truly presents a threat to Russia, but what’s important is that the Kremlin elites believe that it does

Over the last three hundred years, there had been numerous devastating invasions of Russia (Hitler, Napoleon, Swedes, Poles, etc) which had been launched either through from what is now Belarus or Ukraine

The prospect of either country joining NATO (an implicit anti-Russia military alliance) has been and would be unacceptable to any Russian leader - Putin, Yeltsin, Gorbachev or even someone like Navalny and is viewed as an existential threat.

Reason: Pro-western government in Ukraine, protests against Lukashenko, color revolution in Georgia, protests in Moscow, etc have all been viewed by Putin through the same lens - covert Western attempts to undermine Russia and build coalitions of enemy states in the near abroad

Reason: Even without Ukraine joining NATO, Putin has become convinced that a pro-western Ukraine poses a serious threat given the deployment of NATO weapons and advisors there even without formal membership

His talk of 4-5min missile flight time to Moscow or threat to Crimea may sound like paranoia to us, but he believes it - which is all that matters right nowhttps://twitter.com/dimsmirnov175/status/1473263652006412296?s=20 …

Reason: He knows that an invasion of Ukraine, would put a permanent end to all talk of Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus or any Central Asian states of ever joining NATO or deployment of NATO weapons and troops on their territories without Russia’s agreement

It would instantly reinstate Russia’s sphere of influence in that part of the world. No former Soviet Union state (aside from the Baltics) would dare to flirt with NATO or EU again

Reason: From a timing perspective, this might be the best time he will ever have to invade. US is distracted by domestic politics and new geopolitical confrontation with China

Energy prices are skyrocketing. Europe is wholly dependent on Russia’s gas and even the US is currently importing Russia’s crude oil. There is little chance there will be economic sanctions on fossil fuels as a result

Reason: Sanctions are not an effective deterrent. Russia has learned to live with them, even if it dislikes them. Its economy is much more resilient today to them - including in part due to help from China. Moreover, it has learned to expect sanctions no matter what it does

Sanctions instituted this year for activity traditionally considered acceptable espionage - such as the SolarWinds/HolidayBear hacks - have undermined their use for deterrence as they send a signal that we will sanction Russia for everything it does