.@CurlOfGradient How low is your prior p(missing critical fact)?
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Replying to @davidmanheim
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@CurlOfGradient on the other hand, consider the apocryphal economist ignoring a $20 bill on the street - check if you're wrong & why.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @davidmanheim
@davidmanheim Tangent: anyone who doesn't take the effort to bend down and check if a bill is real isn't asking the right question: 1/21 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @CurlOfGradient
@davidmanheim "Is the effort it takes to bend down really worth more than a possible $20?" Their prior can't be *that* low. 2/22 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @CurlOfGradient
@CurlOfGradient Oh, and their priors can be incredibly low, especially if, say, there is a cost to accepting that they are wrong about EMH.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @davidmanheim
@davidmanheim I suppose I meant their *posterior* P(real $20 | looks like a dollar on the street) can't be so low that it's not worth it.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @CurlOfGradient
@davidmanheim For non-dollar-example-related things I agree.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @CurlOfGradient
@CurlOfGradient You seem to think people should be willing to be more inconsistent for the sake of money - but Utils are utils!1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @davidmanheim
@davidmanheim How so? I'm saying that our ability to find "right" solutions while simultaneously claiming that we shouldn't use them 1/1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @CurlOfGradient
@davidmanheim because other people *won't* find the right solution is suspicious. I'm saying we should all be *more* consistent for the 2/1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
@davidmanheim sake of utils, but that we seem to be falling into the trap of considering ourselves somehow better than the average. 3/
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Replying to @CurlOfGradient
@davidmanheim It's just something I thing we should all keep in mind. Humility and all that. 4/40 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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