Should we be suspicious when our reasoning goes "It would be better to do A and *I* can see A is better, but other people won't see it"?
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Replying to @CurlOfGradient
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@CurlOfGradient How low is your prior p(missing critical fact)?1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @davidmanheim
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@CurlOfGradient on the other hand, consider the apocryphal economist ignoring a $20 bill on the street - check if you're wrong & why.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @davidmanheim
@davidmanheim Tangent: anyone who doesn't take the effort to bend down and check if a bill is real isn't asking the right question: 1/21 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @CurlOfGradient
@davidmanheim "Is the effort it takes to bend down really worth more than a possible $20?" Their prior can't be *that* low. 2/22 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @CurlOfGradient
@davidmanheim But back on topic: For some problems the prior is very low, which makes me think I'm uncharitable towards the average person.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @CurlOfGradient
@CurlOfGradient I think you may need to re-calibrate. You may not be missing something about the problem, but something else, like 1/1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @davidmanheim
@CurlOfGradient ... the motivations of various actors, the risk of changing a working system, the cost of spanning inferential distance 2/31 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @davidmanheim
@CurlOfGradient ...etc. These can all be valid reasons / concerns for those that don't accept your solution, even if you are "right." 3/31 reply 0 retweets 1 like
@davidmanheim I mean for something as simple as a Luring Lottery. The best strategy exists, but no one uses it and no one wins anything.
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