Should we be suspicious when our reasoning goes "It would be better to do A and *I* can see A is better, but other people won't see it"?
@davidmanheim "Is the effort it takes to bend down really worth more than a possible $20?" Their prior can't be *that* low. 2/2
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@CurlOfGradient Oh, and their priors can be incredibly low, especially if, say, there is a cost to accepting that they are wrong about EMH. -
@davidmanheim I suppose I meant their *posterior* P(real $20 | looks like a dollar on the street) can't be so low that it's not worth it. - 6 more replies
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@davidmanheim But back on topic: For some problems the prior is very low, which makes me think I'm uncharitable towards the average person. -
@CurlOfGradient I think you may need to re-calibrate. You may not be missing something about the problem, but something else, like 1/ - 3 more replies
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