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Crescat Capital proslijedio/la je Tweet
Time for the valuation insanity of the day.
$AYX is in the fiercely competitive, high overhead IT services business, a massive grower...of SG&A! That's OK. It's a SaaS business. So let's give it a 25x EV-to-sales multiple! Never mind the profitability. Y2K all over again!pic.twitter.com/NHgAvpS7mE
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Playing with fire… Another cut and Brazilian overnight rates are now below inflation for the first time in history.pic.twitter.com/u5GGYQw8sD
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Best economy ever. Durable goods new order growth just contracted again. It has declined for 5 months straight! Only happened 3 other times: May 2001 Sept 2008 July 2015 Key detail: *That’s pre coronavirus epidemic*pic.twitter.com/F0fe96GP4L
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5-Year CAPE ratio is officially at its 2nd highest level in 100+ years. Who cares, bulls say: "Valuations can still reach tech bubble levels." Please… Debt imbalances today are incomparable. What we have is a mix of absurd multiples with extreme leverage.pic.twitter.com/jd5g1zo5HN
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The valuation lunacy chart of the day goes to
$MCD. Is it really worth 10x EV to sales? The multiple expanded almost 3-fold since 2013 while revenues declined. Sales per share peaked in 2016.pic.twitter.com/9lbS5YYhSU
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Validation. Copper Just broke down from 17-year support. Don’t tell me copper isn’t relevant anymore. - Electricity - Transportation - Electronics - Machinery - Construction A clear barometer for the health of the global economy.pic.twitter.com/UQGPFBy95r
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An abundance of valuation absurdities in this manic market.
$SHOP is just another example. EV to sales jumped from 12 to 36 times last year as revenue growth decelerated and negative free cash flow continued. 510 times 2020 expected earnings!pic.twitter.com/a1LSUiAVaZ
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The kiss of death for stocks. S&P 500 just formed a gravestone doji on its monthly candle. Technicals, fundamentals & macro. A bearish alignment after the longest bull market in history.pic.twitter.com/0ipf9pPvfZ
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56%. That’s the % of inversions in the US yield curve today. On the verge of the critical 70% again. Every time it first exceeded this level: - The S&P 500 fell by 27% on average for the next 2-years - A recession coincided or followed. Already first breached in August 2019.pic.twitter.com/QOPkzcGVxR
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$AMD was a hot stock last year but became a crowded long. Historically a cyclical stock, it trades at its highest EV to sales ever ahead of a likely business cycle downturn. Inventories grow and prices get cut in recessions.$INTC and$NVDA are tough competitors.pic.twitter.com/SZyKGfFW1y
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Crescat Capital proslijedio/la je Tweet
Dip buyers, consider the following: https://on.mktw.net/2Ocaxbw Thanks for the article
@slangwisepic.twitter.com/MpUN2vhGmw
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Crescat Capital proslijedio/la je Tweet
Macro Madness Series.
Cracks in the U.S. economy
Peak reliance on central banks
Bitcoin as a key solution
China Issues
Thanks @Kevin_Kelly_II &@Shaughnessy119 for having me at the@ChainPodcast iTunes: https://tinyurl.com/yxy7cy2m Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/vkz3lkt pic.twitter.com/iGDxHLm6Hz
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There is a major disconnect between stock prices and underlying fundamentals. US economy-wide corporate profits have been in a declining growth trend and just turned negative. The same pattern led directly to past bear markets and recessions. https://www.crescat.net/bear-market-looms/ …pic.twitter.com/4Hpn64eioF
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Truly insane. The median EV to Sales ratio for the stocks is now 3.6x. Twice as high as it was at the peak of the tech & housing bubbles. The breath of valuations has never been so frothy. Our in-depth research below: https://www.crescat.net/bear-market-looms/ …pic.twitter.com/erTc2BuE4g
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Crescat Capital proslijedio/la je Tweet
China’s bank assets grew from 9% to 50% of global GDP from 2005 to 2018: USD 3.6 to 41 trillion. Biggest Ponzi ever! Not kidding. The West bought it hook, line, and sinker, but it’s finally starting to unravel. The bust will be globally contagious.pic.twitter.com/AeNWPLMERj
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Buckle up. Oil & copper plunging while gold rallies? This only happened a few other times in history: During the Great Recession & just prior to the EM meltdown. Commodities are clearly acting like a selloff in stocks is approaching.pic.twitter.com/pdhs7XBxPh
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Set to go again.
$BRL selloff is gaining momentum for a second time. Meanwhile, Brazilian stocks are completely diverging from FX flows. Strange, if you ask me.pic.twitter.com/qFZVu386z8
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Corrosive all together. Utilities consistently burn cash with record debt and atrocious valuations. 14-Day RSI is now at its highest level since the mid-90s. A flight-to-safety trap.pic.twitter.com/BFfpiVLgva
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Here we are again. US yield curve inversions are back up to 50%! More rate cuts ahead? Just a reminder, folks: Core & median CPI are already at decade highs. Got gold?pic.twitter.com/6RLKKEszwa
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