Crescat Capital

@Crescat_Capital

Crescat is a global macro asset management firm. We strive to grow and protect wealth over time with low correlation to the S&P 500.

Vrijeme pridruživanja: ožujak 2015.

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  1. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Time for the valuation insanity of the day. is in the fiercely competitive, high overhead IT services business, a massive grower...of SG&A! That's OK. It's a SaaS business. So let's give it a 25x EV-to-sales multiple! Never mind the profitability. Y2K all over again!

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Playing with fire… Another cut and Brazilian overnight rates are now below inflation for the first time in history.

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    5. velj

    Best economy ever. Durable goods new order growth just contracted again. It has declined for 5 months straight! Only happened 3 other times: May 2001 Sept 2008 July 2015 Key detail: *That’s pre coronavirus epidemic*

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  4. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    4. velj

    5-Year CAPE ratio is officially at its 2nd highest level in 100+ years. Who cares, bulls say: "Valuations can still reach tech bubble levels." Please… Debt imbalances today are incomparable. What we have is a mix of absurd multiples with extreme leverage.

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  5. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    3. velj

    The valuation lunacy chart of the day goes to . Is it really worth 10x EV to sales? The multiple expanded almost 3-fold since 2013 while revenues declined. Sales per share peaked in 2016.

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  6. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    3. velj

    Validation. Copper Just broke down from 17-year support. Don’t tell me copper isn’t relevant anymore. - Electricity - Transportation - Electronics - Machinery - Construction A clear barometer for the health of the global economy.

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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    1. velj

    An abundance of valuation absurdities in this manic market. is just another example. EV to sales jumped from 12 to 36 times last year as revenue growth decelerated and negative free cash flow continued. 510 times 2020 expected earnings!

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  8. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    The kiss of death for stocks. S&P 500 just formed a gravestone doji on its monthly candle. Technicals, fundamentals & macro. A bearish alignment after the longest bull market in history.

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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    56%. That’s the % of inversions in the US yield curve today. On the verge of the critical 70% again. Every time it first exceeded this level: - The S&P 500 fell by 27% on average for the next 2-years - A recession coincided or followed. Already first breached in August 2019.

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    was a hot stock last year but became a crowded long. Historically a cyclical stock, it trades at its highest EV to sales ever ahead of a likely business cycle downturn. Inventories grow and prices get cut in recessions. and are tough competitors.

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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    This pic says it all

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    Dip buyers, consider the following: Thanks for the article

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  13. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    Macro Madness Series. ➖ Cracks in the U.S. economy ➖ Peak reliance on central banks ➖ Bitcoin as a key solution ➖ China Issues Thanks & for having me at the iTunes: Spotify:

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    There is a major disconnect between stock prices and underlying fundamentals. US economy-wide corporate profits have been in a declining growth trend and just turned negative. The same pattern led directly to past bear markets and recessions.

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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    Truly insane. The median EV to Sales ratio for the stocks is now 3.6x. Twice as high as it was at the peak of the tech & housing bubbles. The breath of valuations has never been so frothy. Our in-depth research below:

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  16. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    29. sij

    China’s bank assets grew from 9% to 50% of global GDP from 2005 to 2018: USD 3.6 to 41 trillion. Biggest Ponzi ever! Not kidding. The West bought it hook, line, and sinker, but it’s finally starting to unravel. The bust will be globally contagious.

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  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    29. sij

    Buckle up. Oil & copper plunging while gold rallies? This only happened a few other times in history: During the Great Recession & just prior to the EM meltdown. Commodities are clearly acting like a selloff in stocks is approaching.

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    28. sij

    Set to go again. selloff is gaining momentum for a second time. Meanwhile, Brazilian stocks are completely diverging from FX flows. Strange, if you ask me.

    Prikaži ovu nit
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  19. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    26. sij

    Corrosive all together. Utilities consistently burn cash with record debt and atrocious valuations. 14-Day RSI is now at its highest level since the mid-90s. A flight-to-safety trap.

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    24. sij

    Here we are again. US yield curve inversions are back up to 50%! More rate cuts ahead? Just a reminder, folks: Core & median CPI are already at decade highs. Got gold?

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