I have always claimed that incentives matter. I just do not believe that they matter in the same way for all peoples or that the outcomes will be the same, because I don't believe that 'human nature' is universal.
"Incentives matter" isn't even close to "outcomes are entirely predicted by incentives" Even with a homogeneous group given the same incentives people make different choices- that's literally why markets work Add in group differences and outcome differences are magnified