Thought this was an interesting idea so I ran "almost successes." That's third down passes that get you either to fourth-and-1 or get you 5+ yards closer to a FG between 20 and 40 (a 38-58 yard FG). Leaders so far in "almost successes" Goff 8 Wentz 5 Bridgewater 5https://twitter.com/RandBall/status/1448361742795476994 …
Seems like the way to measure success is just through changes in win probability. Most of the time that boils down to moving the chains but failing on third down should be discounted for: 1) the probability of succeeding on 4th down 2) the win probability added by inc FG %