You don't get it. Take *your example* - you can draw exactly the conclusions I stated above - very simple calculations to show each of them. With random 5 draws you can make a very good guess about a distribution. In reality we have way more than 5 draws.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @hurricaneross and
You actually can’t. Your hypothesis is most people who commit violent crimes have graduated from low level crimes. Your thoughts on recidivism seem unrealistic.
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Replying to @CravenRave @hurricaneross and
No, I'm saying that most people who commit violent crimes have committed a lot of violent crimes and even have often been arrested for them but our system lets off most black criminals entirely until it sometimes eventually puts them away after an especially serious crime
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @hurricaneross and
Um yikes how can you be so wrong. all data shows Black people are overcharged, oversentenced, and overreprented by the media as criminals. You really don’t know enough to be discussing these things.
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Replying to @CravenRave @hurricaneross and
It shows nothing of the kind. They're undercharged, undersentenced and by far underrepresented by the media as criminals *compared to how criminal they are in reality* which is insanely more criminal than any other race.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @hurricaneross and
Yikes man. Maybe read the literature
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Replying to @CravenRave @hurricaneross and
Sure, I'll start with the FBI Uniform Crime Reports and the National Crime Victimization Survey. Then I can settle in with a Law & Order marathon where there are more white murderers in a year of episodes than actual white murderers in a year in NYC.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @hurricaneross and
You realize law order is a tv show. Are you okay? Weird the ncvs shows that white people commit more crimes.....
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Replying to @CravenRave @hurricaneross and
You're the one who brought up media portrayals - in a way that is completely contrary to reality again. The only time you'll ever see a black criminal on TV is on Cops because that's actual footage from reality - even then they cut black crime and put in all the whites.pic.twitter.com/9yBsRCyNQz
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @hurricaneross and
Yes I mean all the literature on it is wrong. Confirmation bias is amazing
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You don't even understand basic probability. You throw around phrases like "confirmation bias" like they're magic spells. Explain how "confirmation bias" is relevant here.
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