What I want to argue is that 'lockdowns' can never be justified because any ostensible justification for them is *self-nullifying*, in the sense that it must necessarily invoke a context whose severity is such that the 'lockdown' would not help. But, I don't have the intelligence
That's an empirical question but the evidence is all in favor of it not working to get Rt < 1.
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Just to clarify, it’s not enough to ‘get Rt<1’ once, like you’re trying to hit a charity-drive target. You’d have to keep it there long enough for the exponential decay to suppress prevalence to controllable/surveillable levels. In tiny NZ i gather this took 4 months.
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Absolutely. That's question two - of course the amount of time you have to keep Rt < 1 depends on how many cases you let into your country in the first place.
End of conversation
New conversation -
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