The elite overproduction model is used to point out periods of instability which Turchin claims are rapidly approaching. For example look at his writing on lawyers. There are more lawyers graduating than society needs. Lawyers tend to be very political types and ambitious.
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Replying to @CryptonMaximus @CovfefeAnon
Look at journalism and how they very clearly try to stifle their competition with their latest jabs on substack. The institutional journalists want to keep clamping down on rising DIY type journalists and this is a recipe for social conflict. In an aristocracy elites are born
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Replying to @CryptonMaximus @CovfefeAnon
In a Democracy elites are both born and created through education and wealth accumulation. There's essentially more ways to become elite in Democracy, but if there's too many elites then they have to compete with each other over who has power.
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Replying to @CryptonMaximus
Nah, the problem isn't that they're competing for limited slots - his model there is just plain wrong - formal power (100 Senators) isn't the only kind and isn't even the most important kind. The problem is that more of them really are getting power and a larger elite is worse.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon
He doesn't limit it to just politicians, though I think Peter Turchin isn't a Neoreactionary, I think his views can be integrated into NRX more than a replacement. While NRX explains that woke is essentially a religion, this elite overproduction explains the process thatpic.twitter.com/zcmEbIeGRy
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Replying to @CryptonMaximus @CovfefeAnon
allows the woke to destabilize the system and then take control for themselves.
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Replying to @CryptonMaximus @CovfefeAnon
Basically, the main thing about Peter Turchins work is trying to predict ages of mass social instabilitypic.twitter.com/rByQ63bgPS
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Replying to @CryptonMaximus
Looks like some insanely curve fitting nonsense if you think the rest of the world getting their capital base blown up in a global war and the US having massive prosperity in the resulting decade is some kind of rule of history. The part you mentioned earlier seems sensible.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon
Well the quantification of thing definitely can be tricky, as with all things really. It's like "degeneracy" on the right. We know bad things are bad, but can we actually quantify the "badness" of things and make models? Not so far anyway.
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Replying to @CryptonMaximus @CovfefeAnon
His models are predicting shit before it happens so it’s not really curve fitting. And he was called a moron when he first starting making the predictions, but he’s been right so far. It’s silly to ignore his inputs IMO
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He predicted the aftereffects of the US conquering and ruling the world in the aftermath of WWII before WWII happened? Because one of the two lines in that plot is exactly the outcome of that.
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