Depends crucially on timing Early enough? Sure After some sufficiently-large amount of seeding already occurred? No Too few people grasp this bifurcation and how it affects (should affect!) strategy. This is how we get people saying ‘we (the US) should do what New Zealand did’
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Replying to @soncharm
Absolutely. The sentence should be "we should *have* done what New Zealand did" - which is entirely different from "should do". It's unsurprising that they can't grasp that it's a different problem Analogy: it's like trying to copy the workout routine of a champion powerlifter
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon
Even New Zealand though, they had to lock-down what, 4 months, to suppress the effect a few dozen positives? What would be the equivalent required-lockdown-length (as a function of seeding) for some place the size of the UK, and how-early would that have required doing it?
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Replying to @soncharm @CovfefeAnon
My hunch is that above some size+density it’s pretty binary: Either you seal-the-borders early enough prevent almost-all seeding, or The only ‘lockdown’ that could successfully-suppress would be infeasibly long and lead to social unrest, hence self-defeating. A non-solution
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Replying to @soncharm
There's another functional solution. Produce working tests that give instant results and can be administered by everyone. Have everyone self test before having contact with other people; isolate if you test positive. Only requires virtuous, conscientious, intelligent people.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @soncharm
Solutions based on people being the equivalent of spherical cows is a big reason why this has been such a shitshow...
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Replying to @EricRichards22 @soncharm
My point is more that the solution is totally out of reach of the US of 2020 but if you had the tech of 2020 then 1960 US would have had a chance. High trust, 100 IQ nations aren't spherical cows even if none exist in 2020.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @soncharm
It's still distressing to see so many people engaging in counterfactual posturing about what should have been done, if people were somehow not the way that they actually are.
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Replying to @EricRichards22 @soncharm
That's not what I'm engaging in here; beyond "we should have closed the borders" which even USG should have been able to manage every other solution that could work is made impossible by USG. That doesn't mean this was unstoppable - far from it.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @soncharm
Disciplined self-testing and self-quarantine, even if the tests had existed, is a bit of a pie dream. Maybe if we'd sealed New York last March, and actually prevented interstate travel. But good-faith measures can't defeat defectors when there's no real penalty for defecting
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Yes, letting serial defectors occupy the highest cultural ground has been a disaster; they decided that cooperation is such a low priority that they took a high trust society and utterly destroyed it both biologically and culturally.
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