Of course it's not correct - they're an island - it would have been trivially easy to stop the spread.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon
Depends crucially on timing Early enough? Sure After some sufficiently-large amount of seeding already occurred? No Too few people grasp this bifurcation and how it affects (should affect!) strategy. This is how we get people saying ‘we (the US) should do what New Zealand did’
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Replying to @soncharm
Absolutely. The sentence should be "we should *have* done what New Zealand did" - which is entirely different from "should do". It's unsurprising that they can't grasp that it's a different problem Analogy: it's like trying to copy the workout routine of a champion powerlifter
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon
Even New Zealand though, they had to lock-down what, 4 months, to suppress the effect a few dozen positives? What would be the equivalent required-lockdown-length (as a function of seeding) for some place the size of the UK, and how-early would that have required doing it?
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Replying to @soncharm @CovfefeAnon
My hunch is that above some size+density it’s pretty binary: Either you seal-the-borders early enough prevent almost-all seeding, or The only ‘lockdown’ that could successfully-suppress would be infeasibly long and lead to social unrest, hence self-defeating. A non-solution
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Replying to @soncharm
There's another functional solution. Produce working tests that give instant results and can be administered by everyone. Have everyone self test before having contact with other people; isolate if you test positive. Only requires virtuous, conscientious, intelligent people.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @soncharm
Solutions based on people being the equivalent of spherical cows is a big reason why this has been such a shitshow...
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Replying to @EricRichards22 @CovfefeAnon
Yeah, I mean a solution saying ‘simply produce instant working tests’ isn’t false, but neither is, say, ‘simply produce an instant cure’
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Replying to @soncharm @EricRichards22
Instant working tests aren't some high bar - FDA actively blocks the development, manufacture and sale of tests.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @EricRichards22
I don’t disagree, and I’m all for instant fast rapid tests or whatever (I forget the hashtag/acronym that one guy uses) guess I’m just saying, if bureaucratic hurdles, lack of ‘trust’, etc make that infeasible, that’s also part of reality
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Of course it's part of reality. It's the massive downside of importing a (D) vote bank and satisfying the Bryan Caplans of the world. It was a policy choice to have a low trust, declining IQ US.
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Pandemic viruses aren't more likely to actually kill the people who make it impossible to fight them - instead they kill off people who have less reserves of physical health. A case where something isn't self-correcting.
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End of conversation
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