Which was correct. It wasn’t possible to ‘halt the spread’, and the attempt to do so has wasted public resources (and violated human rights, etc.) Good advice this was.https://twitter.com/YearCovid/status/1357282982634147842 …
Not to be confused with 2001 Nobel Peace Prize winner Kofi Annan. 54th Clause of the Magna Carta absolutist. Commentary from an NRx perspective.
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soncharm Retweeted Covid One Year Ago
Which was correct. It wasn’t possible to ‘halt the spread’, and the attempt to do so has wasted public resources (and violated human rights, etc.) Good advice this was.https://twitter.com/YearCovid/status/1357282982634147842 …
soncharm added,
Of course it's not correct - they're an island - it would have been trivially easy to stop the spread.
Depends crucially on timing Early enough? Sure After some sufficiently-large amount of seeding already occurred? No Too few people grasp this bifurcation and how it affects (should affect!) strategy. This is how we get people saying ‘we (the US) should do what New Zealand did’
Absolutely. The sentence should be "we should *have* done what New Zealand did" - which is entirely different from "should do". It's unsurprising that they can't grasp that it's a different problem Analogy: it's like trying to copy the workout routine of a champion powerlifter
Even New Zealand though, they had to lock-down what, 4 months, to suppress the effect a few dozen positives? What would be the equivalent required-lockdown-length (as a function of seeding) for some place the size of the UK, and how-early would that have required doing it?
My hunch is that above some size+density it’s pretty binary: Either you seal-the-borders early enough prevent almost-all seeding, or The only ‘lockdown’ that could successfully-suppress would be infeasibly long and lead to social unrest, hence self-defeating. A non-solution
There's another functional solution. Produce working tests that give instant results and can be administered by everyone. Have everyone self test before having contact with other people; isolate if you test positive. Only requires virtuous, conscientious, intelligent people.
Solutions based on people being the equivalent of spherical cows is a big reason why this has been such a shitshow...
Yeah, I mean a solution saying ‘simply produce instant working tests’ isn’t false, but neither is, say, ‘simply produce an instant cure’
Instant working tests aren't some high bar - FDA actively blocks the development, manufacture and sale of tests.
I don’t disagree, and I’m all for instant fast rapid tests or whatever (I forget the hashtag/acronym that one guy uses) guess I’m just saying, if bureaucratic hurdles, lack of ‘trust’, etc make that infeasible, that’s also part of reality
Of course it's part of reality. It's the massive downside of importing a (D) vote bank and satisfying the Bryan Caplans of the world. It was a policy choice to have a low trust, declining IQ US.
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