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CovfefeAnon's profile
Covfefe Anon
Covfefe Anon
Covfefe Anon
@CovfefeAnon

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Covfefe Anon

@CovfefeAnon

Not to be confused with 2001 Nobel Peace Prize winner Kofi Annan. 54th Clause of the Magna Carta absolutist. Commentary from an NRx perspective.

Joined July 2017

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    1. soncharm‏ @soncharm Feb 13

      soncharm Retweeted Covid One Year Ago

      Which was correct. It wasn’t possible to ‘halt the spread’, and the attempt to do so has wasted public resources (and violated human rights, etc.) Good advice this was.https://twitter.com/YearCovid/status/1357282982634147842 …

      soncharm added,

      Covid One Year Ago @YearCovid
      4 Feb 2020 SAGE advises the UK government to use pandemic flu assumptions in covid planning. The UK flu strategy: "it will not be possible to halt the spread of a new pandemic influenza virus and it would be a waste of public health resources and capacity to attempt to do so." pic.twitter.com/WO9RIUp91H
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
    2. Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon Feb 13
      Replying to @soncharm

      Of course it's not correct - they're an island - it would have been trivially easy to stop the spread.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. soncharm‏ @soncharm Feb 13
      Replying to @CovfefeAnon

      Depends crucially on timing Early enough? Sure After some sufficiently-large amount of seeding already occurred? No Too few people grasp this bifurcation and how it affects (should affect!) strategy. This is how we get people saying ‘we (the US) should do what New Zealand did’

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    4. Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon Feb 13
      Replying to @soncharm

      Absolutely. The sentence should be "we should *have* done what New Zealand did" - which is entirely different from "should do". It's unsurprising that they can't grasp that it's a different problem Analogy: it's like trying to copy the workout routine of a champion powerlifter

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. soncharm‏ @soncharm Feb 13
      Replying to @CovfefeAnon

      Even New Zealand though, they had to lock-down what, 4 months, to suppress the effect a few dozen positives? What would be the equivalent required-lockdown-length (as a function of seeding) for some place the size of the UK, and how-early would that have required doing it?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. soncharm‏ @soncharm Feb 13
      Replying to @soncharm @CovfefeAnon

      My hunch is that above some size+density it’s pretty binary: Either you seal-the-borders early enough prevent almost-all seeding, or The only ‘lockdown’ that could successfully-suppress would be infeasibly long and lead to social unrest, hence self-defeating. A non-solution

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    7. Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon Feb 13
      Replying to @soncharm

      There's another functional solution. Produce working tests that give instant results and can be administered by everyone. Have everyone self test before having contact with other people; isolate if you test positive. Only requires virtuous, conscientious, intelligent people.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Eric Richards‏ @EricRichards22 Feb 13
      Replying to @CovfefeAnon @soncharm

      Solutions based on people being the equivalent of spherical cows is a big reason why this has been such a shitshow...

      2 replies 2 retweets 6 likes
      Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon Feb 13
      Replying to @EricRichards22 @soncharm

      My point is more that the solution is totally out of reach of the US of 2020 but if you had the tech of 2020 then 1960 US would have had a chance. High trust, 100 IQ nations aren't spherical cows even if none exist in 2020.

      7:06 AM - 13 Feb 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Eric Richards
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Eric Richards‏ @EricRichards22 Feb 13
          Replying to @CovfefeAnon @soncharm

          It's still distressing to see so many people engaging in counterfactual posturing about what should have been done, if people were somehow not the way that they actually are.

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. soncharm‏ @soncharm Feb 13
          Replying to @EricRichards22 @CovfefeAnon

          Exactly. The way people actually are, is as much a part of reality as the virus

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation

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