How rare?
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For present day about 1.5% at the high end. Last names vs genes which covers a few hundred years of history - 0.73% for Afrikaners, 1.6% for Irish, 1.3% for Englishhttps://westhunt.wordpress.com/2013/01/27/by-blows-paternal-age-and-all-that/ …
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @imhinesmi
Yeah, well 1%× thousands of generations = certainty
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The the latter numbers indicate a ~1% chance for at least one event in the last few hundred years - that's how often you get a genetic mismatch with a last name. 1% for a single event in a line for 20 events; not for each event.
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Those numbers really do highlight how bad modern society is when examined at it more closely. Notice the drastic mismatch between the modern numbers and the historic. Present day is ~99% for paternal certainty but over 20 generations ~99% for no cuckholding - implies much lower
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Running through this quickly it for the result to be a 1% chance of there being a surname / genetic mismatch you need not 99% of paternity certainty but ~99.95% paternity certainty. Modern society is awful.
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Math backup for that: Binomial distribution, 20 trials, 20 successes, p() = .99 - result is 82% p() needs to be at .9994 to get to the 98.8% we see.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @imhinesmi
That's interesting. Also, remember that a 1% chance of cuckoldry means that quite a lot of attempted cuckoldry has to happen, it's not an instant/certain thing.
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1% today. IOW, modern society is crap at preventing women's instinct to commit paternity fraud compared to past society.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @imhinesmi
Yes but if you look at how strongly women were repressed in previous eras it makes perfect sense. 1.5% per generation would mean that over 40 generations a man has a 50% chance of losing his investment in his descendants.
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Yes, women obviously need to have their instincts repressed for civilization to continue functioning. 1% chance of paternity fraud is historically unprecedented and civilization ending (as you're seeing with, ya know, the end of civilization)
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @imhinesmi
That may be true but it may not be. Human progress is rapidly handing the baton to AIs. GPT-3 is going to shock us. The human era is on such a limited timeframe that 1%-4% non paternity is now irrelevant.
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Humans have always built tools of increasing sophistication and the key is always a contest between men on how well they can use those tools.
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