IOW, contemporary false paternity has EXPLODED compared to the historical past. Assuming 20 generations you'd need about 0.0055 p(false paternity) per generation to get a 0.99 p(gene / surname match) for the whole run.
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Update:
@gcochran99 has clarified that the rates in the post aren't the % of surnames that mismatch genes; they're the implied rate of false paternity (or adoption of males) *per generation* so actually the modern numbers line up with the historical norms.Show this thread
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"Historical surname / gene mismatch also close to those numbers" - no, it's not. You have misunderstood. Are you trying to destroy my faith in covfefe?
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Asking a few questions to be sure I got this right. The numbers in the left picture imply that the p(zero false paternity events over X number of generations) = .9927, .984, .987, right? Assume 10 generations and you need to have p(correct paternity) of .999 per gen, no?pic.twitter.com/lzTkLT4GAa
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