Since we have serological tests... we often do know the number infected. It's easy for something to be a mystery if you don't like the answer.
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Replying to @gcochran99 @SylvanRed and
No, we don’t. We have estimates. I’ve never been tested. Have I had covid? My wife? My son?
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Replying to @Crey1959 @SylvanRed and
When you test 60,000 people over Spain, selected randomly, you have a pretty good idea of the fraction infected. There's a perfectly cromulent theory of random sampling. In the same way, we can form a good estimate of what % of artillery shells are duds without exploding all.
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Replying to @gcochran99 @SylvanRed and
It’s just that the estimates I have seen from seroprevalence studies have varied so wildly, and been criticized so thoroughly. Plus, I don’t understand why cases are skyrocketing, but deaths are not.
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Replying to @Crey1959 @SylvanRed and
Right now, cases are more hitting the young. Then there's the time lag between infection and deaths. No mystery.
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Replying to @gcochran99 @SylvanRed and
My take-even if we stay locked down, everyone will eventually get it, and some small percentage of us will die. No vaccine anytime soon.
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Replying to @SylvanRed @gcochran99 and
The lockdowns flattened the curve.
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Replying to @Crey1959 @SylvanRed and
Any intervention that materially 'flattens the curve" is within a whisker of that required to stop it cold, with proper follow-up: but we've apparently got too many Kali-worshippers.
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The same institutions that couldn't stop it when there were 200 cases didn't gain any ability to stop it when they had the harder task of stopping it when there are many many more cases
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