Fair question. Normal kind of cause. So, prediction due to a causal link, not just common causes/improperly controlled confounds.
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Replying to @glupyan @timothycbates and
why does it matter? IQ tests are among the most powerful predictors we have of a wide range of important life outcomes. if your goal is to select people to, e.g., do a certain job, why does it matter if part of what IQ tests measure is shared in common with other things?
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Replying to @talyarkoni @timothycbates and
(1) when you start looking at the primary data you find that their predictive power is not great. Is a .16 correlation with criminality qualify as "the most powerful predictor"? How about 0 correlation with net worth? (2) The real problem is not about prediction but about ...
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Replying to @glupyan @talyarkoni and
causality. The field is by-and-large using (often messy/confounded) correlational studies to argue for causality. Finding: IQ tests predict stuff. Ok. But Assumption: there is g; Assumption: IQ tests measure it; Assumption: diffs in IQ tests cause differences in observed outcomes
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Replying to @glupyan @timothycbates and
re: (1) predictive power of real-world outcomes is rarely great for anything! but comparatively speaking, cognitive ability measures are up there with just about anything else. also, why pick criminality? isn't the context of most of these discussions academic achievement?
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Replying to @talyarkoni @glupyan and
Guido Biele Retweeted steven t. piantadosi
I agree that cognitive abilities are causal, but disagree that IQ tests measure them ad straight forward as you seem to suggest. See e.g. here (I don't agree that IQ is bullshit, as the start of the thread said, the thread is still informative)https://twitter.com/spiantado/status/1275783976339169280?s=19 …
Guido Biele added,
steven t. piantadosi @spiantadoSuch differences were highlighted decades ago with examples that show the cultural baggage inherent in creating any test. If you construct the right IQ test, as in "The Black Intelligence Test of Cultural Homogeneity", black children score higher than white children. pic.twitter.com/hJ38nR06BEShow this thread2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @GuidoBiele @glupyan and
not sure what the relevant point here is; can you spell it out?
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Replying to @talyarkoni @glupyan and
The narrow point I tried to make is that I don't think existing IQ tests are generally good measures of cognitive ability (which you seemed to imply), because cultural background knowledge has a clear influence on IQ test performance, as the linked thread shows.
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Replying to @GuidoBiele @talyarkoni and
Every single person in the IQ testing business would love to become rich and famous by inventing an IQ test that is just as predictively valid as the IQ tests we have today but in which blacks do as well as whites. But after 50+ years of trying, nobody has come close.
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There's no reason to expect that a valid test will remain so forever. Figuring out the area under a curve when given the equation for the curve at one time tested if you were one of the smartest men who ever lived; now it tests if you have an IQ of 105 and took Calc 1.
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Replying to @HalperConrad @Steve_Sailer and
Amazing what you think you know.
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End of conversation
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