Trump is seizing on and amplifying random, anomolous instances of interracial violence, needlessly inflaming racial tensions at a moment of polarization and social upheaval. This is abhorrent and irresponsible. His subordinates and children know this and should say so. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1275256115710885889 …
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Replying to @conor64
Not anomalous,
@Conor64. According to a 2011 Obama Administration report, from 1980-2008, blacks were 7.6 times more likely to be homicide offenders than the rest of the population: https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf …6 replies 25 retweets 351 likes -
Replying to @Steve_Sailer @conor64
The only real question by now is whether or not he knows he's lying or if he's just totally indifferent to the concept of truth so didn't even bother to check the factual basis.
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That's not what the word "anomalous" means in context! This particular encounter can be anomalous (in that getting beat up in a Macy's is rare and the President shouldn't be selectively reporting it) without implying anything about general offender/victim racial frequencies! 1/3
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Saying that the encounter in Macy's is anomalous because it happened there is a roundabout version of the prosecutor's fallacy. The attacker was a violent felon - the anomaly is merely that he was in Macy's. Him attacking someone is high p(). There in particular? Low p()
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IOW, literally every attack's location and circumstances is a low probability event but the high probability part is the tilt of the race of the perpetrators - those particular people commit a lot of crimes wherever they go.
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