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CovfefeAnon's profile
Covfefe Anon
Covfefe Anon
Covfefe Anon
@CovfefeAnon

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Covfefe Anon

@CovfefeAnon

Not to be confused with 2001 Nobel Peace Prize winner Kofi Annan. 54th Clause of the Magna Carta absolutist. Commentary from an NRx perspective.

Joined July 2017

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    1. soncharm‏ @soncharm 25 May 2020
      Replying to @CovfefeAnon @euneaux and

      Feels like a good time to mention that research going around (dunno how much truth, can’t evaluate) suggesting perhaps other coronavirus exposures do provide some sort of partial immunity to this one

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 25 May 2020
      Replying to @soncharm @euneaux and

      Runs into the problem of Lombardi; maybe some % of people there *didn't* have COVID19 and had the protective infection first (which shows up on serum tests as COVID antibodies). All that means is that COVID is that much more deadly to those who do catch it.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Steve Sailer‏ @Steve_Sailer 25 May 2020
      Replying to @CovfefeAnon @soncharm and

      They can check old blood donations from 2019 to make sure they aren't getting false positive readings from pre-existing antibodies.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 25 May 2020
      Replying to @Steve_Sailer @soncharm and

      Granting their assumption that some prior corona virus causes the body to produce the same antibodies as for COVID19 it still isn't good news; just means that the IFR goes from 1% to some higher number by lowering the denominator (I) while keeping the numerator constant (F).

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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    7. Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 25 May 2020
      Replying to @euneaux @Steve_Sailer and

      SIR is extremely well established; it's worked for previous epidemics and has a sound mathematical and logical basis. Assuming that SIR will apply to this one is like assuming that the fog-shrouded road continues rather than terminating in a drop off a cliff.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Luigi Warren  😊 😻‏ @luigi_warren 25 May 2020
      Replying to @CovfefeAnon @euneaux and

      Point me to an article showing that SIR worked for predicting the course of an epidemic -- and I mean, on a national level, not on an isolated village or a herd of cows .

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 25 May 2020
      Replying to @luigi_warren @euneaux and

      Most recently measles in American Samoa. Vaccination rates dropped below the number needed for herd immunity; a new case showed up it spread rapidly and was contained when vaccination rates got high enough to stop the spread.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Samoa_measles_outbreak …

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Luigi Warren  😊 😻‏ @luigi_warren 25 May 2020
      Replying to @CovfefeAnon @euneaux and

      Where's the quantitative prediction for the HI threshold for measles from SIR principles? All you have there is an empirically determined HI threshold. No one doubts an HI threshold exists for any given infectious disease in a given context. The question is, what is it?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 26 May 2020
      Replying to @luigi_warren @euneaux and

      R0 for measles in a totally susceptible population is estimated to be 12-18 so HI is somewhere between 91% and 94%. The vaccination campaign was deemed a success and the outbreak stopped when they reached the latter number. https://europepmc.org/article/med/28757186 … https://www.facebook.com/samoagovt/posts/2835748539789483 …

      8:47 AM - 26 May 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Steve Sailer
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Luigi Warren  😊 😻‏ @luigi_warren 26 May 2020
          Replying to @CovfefeAnon @euneaux and

          Per the article, is R0 estimated from empirical seroprevalence when outbreaks stop occurring (HI), or is the HI threshold calculated based on empirically determined R0?pic.twitter.com/qYb6v3Y8Lh

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. soncharm‏ @soncharm 26 May 2020
          Replying to @luigi_warren @CovfefeAnon and

          The uses I see of ‘R0’ in these SIR frameworks strike me as reminiscent of implied-vol in the Black-Scholes model. While it can be useful for intuition, it’s ‘the wrong number which when plugged into the wrong model gives the right answer’, and ought not be taken too literally.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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