Feels like a good time to mention that research going around (dunno how much truth, can’t evaluate) suggesting perhaps other coronavirus exposures do provide some sort of partial immunity to this one
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Per the article, is R0 estimated from empirical seroprevalence when outbreaks stop occurring (HI), or is the HI threshold calculated based on empirically determined R0?pic.twitter.com/qYb6v3Y8Lh
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The uses I see of ‘R0’ in these SIR frameworks strike me as reminiscent of implied-vol in the Black-Scholes model. While it can be useful for intuition, it’s ‘the wrong number which when plugged into the wrong model gives the right answer’, and ought not be taken too literally.
End of conversation
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