Which epidemics? Previous flu pandemics reached the levels of infection predicted by SIR. Measles reached that level in isolated populations without immunity from prior infections. There is no prior immunity from past infection for a novel disease so everyone is vulnerable.
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Where's the quantitative prediction for the HI threshold for measles from SIR principles? All you have there is an empirically determined HI threshold. No one doubts an HI threshold exists for any given infectious disease in a given context. The question is, what is it?
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R0 for measles in a totally susceptible population is estimated to be 12-18 so HI is somewhere between 91% and 94%. The vaccination campaign was deemed a success and the outbreak stopped when they reached the latter number. https://europepmc.org/article/med/28757186 … https://www.facebook.com/samoagovt/posts/2835748539789483 …
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