Practically speaking I agree; this isn't going to zero because the entire west is made up of failed states incapable of doing simple testing and quarantining of the infected.
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So, what is S? What are the factors that affect S? How do they apply to COVID-19?
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It's a novel zoonotic; the assumption is that everyone alive is susceptible. If it turns out that some people aren't susceptible then the disease is more infectious and more deadly than previously thought because it spread to a partly immune population and killed a % of cases.
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Point me to an article showing that SIR worked for predicting the course of an epidemic -- and I mean, on a national level, not on an isolated village or a herd of cows .
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Most recently measles in American Samoa. Vaccination rates dropped below the number needed for herd immunity; a new case showed up it spread rapidly and was contained when vaccination rates got high enough to stop the spread.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Samoa_measles_outbreak …
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