Because being a novel zoonotic infectious disease there is no "under control"; it's either going to zero or going to the herd immunity point and the current situation is unsustainable or at the least unpleasant enough that people won't sustain it willingly.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @Steve_Sailer and
what’s ‘the’ herd immunity point
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Replying to @soncharm @CovfefeAnon and
P.S. I have no confidence whatsoever that it’s ‘going to zero’, that that’s a realistic terminal boundary condition to include in grownup considerations and policy discussions
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Replying to @soncharm @Steve_Sailer and
Practically speaking I agree; this isn't going to zero because the entire west is made up of failed states incapable of doing simple testing and quarantining of the infected.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @Steve_Sailer and
Right. It’s not going to zero, unless of course we get a very good vaccine (which is not something that is reasonable to bank on). Which leaves us in the muddled middle of having to live with it. As long as it’s not growing, that’s good. Where does ‘herd immunity’ matter.
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Which epidemics? Previous flu pandemics reached the levels of infection predicted by SIR. Measles reached that level in isolated populations without immunity from prior infections. There is no prior immunity from past infection for a novel disease so everyone is vulnerable.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @euneaux and
Luigi Warren 😊 😻 Retweeted Luigi Warren 😊 😻
Nope, looks like there's plenty of cross-reactive immunity from other coronaviruses, including those that cause common colds. That's probably part of why kids barely get it, don't progress to severe symptoms if they do and are very poor at spreading it.https://twitter.com/luigi_warren/status/1263243101931319296?s=20 …
Luigi Warren 😊 😻 added,
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Replying to @luigi_warren @euneaux and
Either it's 1% IFR or the serum antibody tests in NY and Lombardi are picking up immunity to other corona viruses and it's *much more* deadly than 1%. There's no good news to be found in "it infected fewer people in Lombardi"
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @euneaux and
No, probably practically everyone who's gonna be infected there already has been. Their numbers are likely padded but they're gonna be on the high end, maybe IFR=0.4%, because of the reverse Typhoid Mary policy of quarantining infected in old age homes. Similar to Lombardy.
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Your claims are internally inconsistent. To claim a lower IFR you're claiming universal infection but if that's the case then housing COVID patients in nursing homes is meaningless since everyone was infected anyway.
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