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CovfefeAnon's profile
Covfefe Anon
Covfefe Anon
Covfefe Anon
@CovfefeAnon

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Covfefe Anon

@CovfefeAnon

Not to be confused with 2001 Nobel Peace Prize winner Kofi Annan. 54th Clause of the Magna Carta absolutist. Commentary from an NRx perspective.

Joined July 2017

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    1. soncharm‏ @soncharm 25 May 2020
      Replying to @soncharm @CovfefeAnon and

      P.S. I have no confidence whatsoever that it’s ‘going to zero’, that that’s a realistic terminal boundary condition to include in grownup considerations and policy discussions

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 25 May 2020
      Replying to @soncharm @Steve_Sailer and

      Practically speaking I agree; this isn't going to zero because the entire west is made up of failed states incapable of doing simple testing and quarantining of the infected.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. soncharm‏ @soncharm 25 May 2020
      Replying to @CovfefeAnon @Steve_Sailer and

      Right. It’s not going to zero, unless of course we get a very good vaccine (which is not something that is reasonable to bank on). Which leaves us in the muddled middle of having to live with it. As long as it’s not growing, that’s good. Where does ‘herd immunity’ matter.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. This Tweet is unavailable.
    5. Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 25 May 2020
      Replying to @euneaux @soncharm and

      Which epidemics? Previous flu pandemics reached the levels of infection predicted by SIR. Measles reached that level in isolated populations without immunity from prior infections. There is no prior immunity from past infection for a novel disease so everyone is vulnerable.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. soncharm‏ @soncharm 25 May 2020
      Replying to @CovfefeAnon @euneaux and

      Feels like a good time to mention that research going around (dunno how much truth, can’t evaluate) suggesting perhaps other coronavirus exposures do provide some sort of partial immunity to this one

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 25 May 2020
      Replying to @soncharm @euneaux and

      Runs into the problem of Lombardi; maybe some % of people there *didn't* have COVID19 and had the protective infection first (which shows up on serum tests as COVID antibodies). All that means is that COVID is that much more deadly to those who do catch it.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Steve Sailer‏ @Steve_Sailer 25 May 2020
      Replying to @CovfefeAnon @soncharm and

      They can check old blood donations from 2019 to make sure they aren't getting false positive readings from pre-existing antibodies.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 25 May 2020
      Replying to @Steve_Sailer @soncharm and

      Granting their assumption that some prior corona virus causes the body to produce the same antibodies as for COVID19 it still isn't good news; just means that the IFR goes from 1% to some higher number by lowering the denominator (I) while keeping the numerator constant (F).

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Luigi Warren  😊 😻‏ @luigi_warren 25 May 2020
      Replying to @CovfefeAnon @Steve_Sailer and

      Already factored into the numbers, IFR is now thought to be in the .1% to .4% range, infection is basically harmless to the young and healthy -- like flu, except flu can be dangerous in kids while COVID-19 is harmless to kids. Average age at death for COVID is >80.pic.twitter.com/wYuXry3n4J

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 25 May 2020
      Replying to @luigi_warren @Steve_Sailer and

      The *total death rate* of Bergamo reached .58% - pretty neat trick if the death rate from COVID is .1% - even neater a trick if fewer people were infected than otherwise supposed because of some kind of pre-existing immunity. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v3 …

      9:32 PM - 25 May 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Steve Sailer
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Luigi Warren  😊 😻‏ @luigi_warren 25 May 2020
          Replying to @CovfefeAnon @Steve_Sailer and

          Again, in the real world, if diseases behaved generally like they do where they break out, we'd all be dead already. We'd all have been killed off by Legionnaires and AIDS and a hundred different infectious diseases. Isn't that right?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 25 May 2020
          Replying to @luigi_warren @Steve_Sailer and

          No

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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