But it explains the hidden flaw in all the Let 'Er Rip theorizing: even if the government endorses broad spread and the public mouths support, enough individuals will still shy away from behavior more likely to get them infected to cause the strategy to flop.
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Right. Just a few weeks ago, the optimists were claiming that Real Soon Now the antibody tests would show that lots and lots of people had already been infected, meaning the Infection Fatality Rate is low and Herd Immunity is close. I wish that had turned out to be true ...
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What do you understand by S? What are the factors that affect S, and what do you think S is in the real world? You're really serious about understanding this Herd Immunity thing, right, not just trying to spew a few talking points as the lockdown thing goes down in flames, right?
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No, probably practically everyone who's gonna be infected there already has been. Their numbers are likely padded but they're gonna be on the high end, maybe IFR=0.4%, because of the reverse Typhoid Mary policy of quarantining infected in old age homes. Similar to Lombardy.
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Your claims are internally inconsistent. To claim a lower IFR you're claiming universal infection but if that's the case then housing COVID patients in nursing homes is meaningless since everyone was infected anyway.
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