But it explains the hidden flaw in all the Let 'Er Rip theorizing: even if the government endorses broad spread and the public mouths support, enough individuals will still shy away from behavior more likely to get them infected to cause the strategy to flop.
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Replying to @Steve_Sailer @luigi_warren and
That's ok tho. The goal is (or should be) to keep an epidemic under control, not to get I+R to some weirdly-predetermined percentage. That's my whole point. If epidemic is controlled in part cuz people change behaviors to be more careful, that's fine. Why wouldn't it be fine?
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Replying to @soncharm @Steve_Sailer and
Because being a novel zoonotic infectious disease there is no "under control"; it's either going to zero or going to the herd immunity point and the current situation is unsustainable or at the least unpleasant enough that people won't sustain it willingly.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @Steve_Sailer and
what’s ‘the’ herd immunity point
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Replying to @soncharm @CovfefeAnon and
P.S. I have no confidence whatsoever that it’s ‘going to zero’, that that’s a realistic terminal boundary condition to include in grownup considerations and policy discussions
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Replying to @soncharm @Steve_Sailer and
Practically speaking I agree; this isn't going to zero because the entire west is made up of failed states incapable of doing simple testing and quarantining of the infected.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @Steve_Sailer and
Right. It’s not going to zero, unless of course we get a very good vaccine (which is not something that is reasonable to bank on). Which leaves us in the muddled middle of having to live with it. As long as it’s not growing, that’s good. Where does ‘herd immunity’ matter.
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Replying to @euneaux @CovfefeAnon and
It absolutely might (mostly) burn itself out. I consider that a completely-live possibility. Or it might ebb, come back, become seasonal ‘like the flu’*. *sorry, Smart People have informed me we’re not allowed to mention flu in any covid convo, but couldn’t help it ;)
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Herd immunity at 50 or 60% is only when R0 is 2+ which the seasonal flu never approaches. Flues also fizzle because infection with prior strains grants immunity. To model this look at measles in an isolated population.
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