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CovfefeAnon's profile
Covfefe Anon
Covfefe Anon
Covfefe Anon
@CovfefeAnon

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Covfefe Anon

@CovfefeAnon

Not to be confused with 2001 Nobel Peace Prize winner Kofi Annan. 54th Clause of the Magna Carta absolutist. Commentary from an NRx perspective.

Joined July 2017

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    1. Gregory Cochran‏ @gcochran99 21 May 2020

      Time Dilationhttps://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/05/21/time-dilation/ …

      3 replies 8 retweets 20 likes
    2. localherodotbiz‏ @localherodotbiz 22 May 2020
      Replying to @gcochran99

      this guy abuses people who don’t agree with him. But he can’t count. At current death rates (which are falling dramatically almost everywhere). It would 4 years to get to the 2 million US deaths this guy predicted. #cochranisafool @gcochran99

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Mac Tonight‏ @Dplrblmctnght 22 May 2020
      Replying to @localherodotbiz @gcochran99

      He said the worst case scenario, which he gave a 10% chance to back in early February, was two million US deaths. In a scenario where we did absolutely nothing. That’s a lot more accurate than anything we’ve heard in the media.

      3 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
    4. localherodotbiz‏ @localherodotbiz 22 May 2020
      Replying to @Dplrblmctnght @gcochran99

      Numbers are going down in most countries (including countries with minimal lockdown) Peter Shaw predicted 200k deaths a month back on westhunt. @gcochran99 called him an idiot. Thing is the final number will be a lot closer to 200k than 2 million. #cochranisafool

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Gregory Cochran‏ @gcochran99 22 May 2020
      Replying to @localherodotbiz @Dplrblmctnght

      If people start acting normally, it will start spreading rapidly again. I'm sure you've made up some magical principle that prevents that.

      2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
    6. localherodotbiz‏ @localherodotbiz 22 May 2020
      Replying to @gcochran99 @Dplrblmctnght

      People in Spain went back to work 4 weeks ago, Sweden has a minimal lockdown, falling in both. Herd immunity % is not 70% and it’s seasonal. Protect the old and let the rest of us catch it. There is no plausible path to 2 million deaths so admit it.

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Gregory Cochran‏ @gcochran99 22 May 2020
      Replying to @localherodotbiz @Dplrblmctnght

      Well, if you believe simple SIR theory, herd immunity is likely well over 70%: it = 1 - 1/R0, and R0 is well above 3. But you have some special knowledge, some reason to believe that it's a lot lower than that. Enlighten us !

      1 reply 3 retweets 8 likes
    8. localherodotbiz‏ @localherodotbiz 24 May 2020
      Replying to @gcochran99 @Dplrblmctnght

      It’s low K, most super spreaders in a short window. Means R0 is highly malleable. Also your arithmetic is ridiculously simplistic. Pete Shaw already said humans are not fungible. The people at the centre of networks will catch it first.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Gregory Cochran‏ @gcochran99 24 May 2020
      Replying to @localherodotbiz @Dplrblmctnght

      Pete Shaw said several things, but they were all false. Just as you have. Previous respiratory epidemics, like influenza, did not act in the way you hope this one will.

      2 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
      Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 24 May 2020
      Replying to @gcochran99 @localherodotbiz @Dplrblmctnght

      It's like in quantum mechanics where observing certain experiments changes the outcome; now that we have modeled super-spreaders the SIR model doesn't work any more and past epidemics don't count.

      6:15 PM - 24 May 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Fred Arnolfson
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Gregory Cochran‏ @gcochran99 24 May 2020
          Replying to @CovfefeAnon @localherodotbiz @Dplrblmctnght

          If super-spreading is something that happens, more than something you are, it makes no difference.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        3. localherodotbiz‏ @localherodotbiz 25 May 2020
          Replying to @gcochran99 @CovfefeAnon @Dplrblmctnght

          It is more likely it is innate, possibly genetic

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Nymdok 🇮🇹 ⚛‏ @Nymdok 26 May 2020
          Replying to @CovfefeAnon @gcochran99 and

          No it isnt like quantum mechanics. Yes Herd Immunity is working in NYC, Detroit, and Seattle. A simple SIR model is really effective. Feel free ot see my work here. https://twitter.com/search?q=Nymdok%20Coronavirus&src=typed_query&f=live …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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