I'm glad that, after claiming for weeks they knew for a fact the final attack rate would be greater than 80% if we let it rip, epidemiologists now admit they have no idea what it would be, which is what I've been saying all this time.https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259248274625761282 …
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Philippe Lemoine Retweeted Natalie E. Dean, PhD
I'm confident that, in a few weeks, they will also understand that magic doesn't exist and that repeating "test, trace isolate" like a mantra doesn't mean you actually have an alternative to letting it rip. But it's okay, everyone learns at their own pace.https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259248307341312003 …
Philippe Lemoine added,
Natalie E. Dean, PhDVerified account @nataliexdeanIn the US, I estimate there is no more than ~5% seroprevalence. Already over 70,000 people have died! I don't see any realistic way to reach any threshold without many, many more deaths. We know the way forward - it's test, trace, isolate. Please, let's pursue that. FIN 19/19Show this thread4 replies 7 retweets 38 likesShow this thread -
Philippe Lemoine Retweeted Michael Kim
By the way, if you want to know what "test, trace, isolate" looks like in practice, read this thread. If you think this is ever going to happen in the US, send me a DM, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.https://twitter.com/michaelvkim/status/1258987354934538248 …
Philippe Lemoine added,
Michael Kim @michaelvkimAs an American currently in South Korea, it’s very interesting to me the stark contrast of how different the two countries’ response to coronavirus is. I don’t think most Americans fully understand the lengths that South Korea has undergone, so I’ll try my best to explain.Show this thread5 replies 8 retweets 44 likesShow this thread -
And no, "tech" isn't going to save you, because again magic doesn't exist. You can have the best app in the world, it won't help if people don't comply and if you can't use coercion for social/political/legal reasons to force them, which you can't.
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The cold, hard truth is that you can't stay locked down until a vaccine is widely available and, once you're no longer locked down, in most countries (probably all of them in the long-run), there is no realistic strategy that will allow you to keep R below 1.
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By the way, please, read what I wrote. I did *not* say tracing was useless or that we shouldn't do some of it, I only said it was no alternative to herd immunity. I don't want to enable incompetent governments by increasing their powers in the hope they'll stop being incompetent.
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Replying to @phl43
Would be interesting to see what
@gcochran99 thinks of this.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
I think it's nonsense.
2 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
USG *could* do all those things if you fired every single person who works for USG and replaced them with people who took a civil service exam - which has been outlawed for 40 years now. IOW, USG cannot do those things both because it's unable and because it's unwilling.
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A few years ago, I might have responded that there are parts of the U.S. government that are competent and trustworthy, but now I’m not so confident about that.
0 replies 0 retweets 2 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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