It shows how many have the antibodies. But how many fought it off without the need for new antibodies, and how many Spanish are susceptible to the virus in the first place? I am getting the impression from this crisis that the science of immunity is still rather young. Fair?
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Replying to @sleuthsome @Birdyword
Isn't every human susceptible? We all have ACE2 proteins, so were all susceptible? If your body fights off the virus, it's by making antibodies for the virus?
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Replying to @SanGringoCorp @Birdyword
Well I am not sure that’s necessarily true - there are other forms of physiological defence than antibodies, I believe. And even if there aren’t then some will be *more* susceptible than others, whether due to lifestyle, climate, living arrangements etc.
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More likely to die or have a serious case once infected isn't "more susceptible" to infection. There's no known population or subpopulation that is less susceptible and there's no reason to expect there to be one.
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People living in sparse villages may be less susceptible to infection than those living cheek-by-jowl in cruise ships, right? The inhabitants of leafy Cornwall may be less susceptible than the inhabitants of London?
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Spanish flu was less transmissible and spread to every town and city in the world 100 years ago when there was far less international travel and far less local mobility.
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It seems to me there is a chance the new coronavirus has spread around the world infecting some people symptomatically, others asymptomatically, and bouncing off others as it were.
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No. The only places where it's shown up in large numbers have had massive deaths accompanying it; there's no where on Earth with lots of COVID and no deaths. People are mentally modeling this wrong b/c they don't understand exponential growth - slow and steady then explodes
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Sleuth Retweeted Sleuth
Like rice on a chessboard, perhaps?https://twitter.com/sleuthsome/status/1235499400253882369?s=20 …
Sleuth added,
Sleuth @sleuthsomeReplying to @EarlyOakRYou are like the Chinese emperor who offered a favoured courtier his any wish. “Rice, sir, in a quantity calculated as one grain on the first square of a chessboard, 2 on the next, four on the next...”. The wish was granted but alas the courtier did not survive to receive it.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Sure. The part that people don't internalize is the implications of the amount added on day x being double the amount added on day x-1. If the doubling period is 10 days under isolation measures then 40 days before you reach 60% you're at a mere 3.75%. https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/05/13/how-far-weve-come/ …
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