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CovfefeAnon's profile
Covfefe Anon
Covfefe Anon
Covfefe Anon
@CovfefeAnon

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Covfefe Anon

@CovfefeAnon

Not to be confused with 2001 Nobel Peace Prize winner Kofi Annan. 54th Clause of the Magna Carta absolutist. Commentary from an NRx perspective.

Joined July 2017

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    1. Ken DeRosa‏ @kderosa 11 May 2020
      Replying to @CovfefeAnon @gcochran99 @JayMan471

      It would appear that that mr virus graph is leveling off is then going extinct or is that too much anthropomorphizing for you.pic.twitter.com/G8VRqdBdO1

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 11 May 2020
      Replying to @kderosa @gcochran99 @JayMan471

      You may or may not have noticed that over the past few weeks people have changed their behavior to make it harder for the virus to infect them. Unsurprisingly, this has slowed the spread of the virus - which is still exactly as infectious as it was before.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Ken DeRosa‏ @kderosa 11 May 2020
      Replying to @CovfefeAnon @gcochran99 @JayMan471

      Your beloved model predicted the hospital system would be overwhelmed despite this change in behavior you speak of. So in addition to over 200k bodies festooning the streets we’d have countless more due to exceeding hospital capacity. None of that has come to pass.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 11 May 2020
      Replying to @kderosa @gcochran99 @JayMan471

      "Your beloved model predicted that all life on Earth would be extinguished by that asteroid but so far zero people have died" So far everything is well in line with 1% of the infected dying and infections increasing until they reach 60% of people. Just wait.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Ken DeRosa‏ @kderosa 11 May 2020
      Replying to @CovfefeAnon @gcochran99 @JayMan471

      Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. You have an old 15k line program apparently translated from FORTRAN which gives wildly different results in successive runs which one reviewing programmer likened to sim-city without the graphics. You can’t make this stuff up.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 11 May 2020
      Replying to @kderosa @gcochran99 @JayMan471

      Claiming that novel infectious diseases only stop spreading when they infect enough people that they can no longer spread is the opposite of an extraordinary claim. It's backed by the experience with every single novel disease in history. Your claim is the extraordinary one.

      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
    7. Ken DeRosa‏ @kderosa 11 May 2020
      Replying to @CovfefeAnon @gcochran99 @JayMan471

      That’s not my claim at all. I believe the R0 of a heterogenous population not only varies over time but is less than the simplistic static R0, homogeneous population being used. We will reach herd immunity well before 60% like we appear to be seeing.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Alt-Ramen‏ @New_Alt_Ramen 11 May 2020
      Replying to @kderosa @CovfefeAnon and

      We appear to be seeing that where?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Ken DeRosa‏ @kderosa 11 May 2020
      Replying to @New_Alt_Ramen @CovfefeAnon and

      Stockholm county, Sweden

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. صدقة جارية‏ @eyelashe1 12 May 2020
      Replying to @kderosa @New_Alt_Ramen and

      At a minimum empiricism is worth following instead of data must follow theory fever dreamers.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 12 May 2020
      Replying to @eyelashe1 @kderosa and

      You need a solid background in past events ("theory") to understand when data is bad vs good. Claims that massive numbers of Californians were already infected is bad data b/c there's no mechanism known for getting there. It's not pointing at something interesting - it's wrong.

      9:30 AM - 12 May 2020
      • 1 Like
      • RE-OPEN THE SIZZLERS
      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. صدقة جارية‏ @eyelashe1 12 May 2020
          Replying to @CovfefeAnon @kderosa and

          I might be missing your point, I would only say that 'past events' (is data not theory). Data is data, it might not be 'good' or 'bad' but instead inconvenient truth. Principles underlying data, and adjusting those principles as we move along would be more optimal. See Levitt.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. صدقة جارية‏ @eyelashe1 12 May 2020
          Replying to @eyelashe1 @CovfefeAnon and

          Of course, in terms of debates around empirical data vs modeling theory I am making reference to Marc Lipsitch at Harvard and Michael Levitt at Stanford.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. صدقة جارية‏ @eyelashe1 12 May 2020
          Replying to @CovfefeAnon @kderosa and

          More refinement and nuance by Marc Lipsitch on his take. Pretty sure Levitt has his own take as well. http://bostonreview.net/science-nature/marc-lipsitch-good-science-good-science#.XrrGUCxIJYc.twitter …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. صدقة جارية‏ @eyelashe1 12 May 2020
          Replying to @CovfefeAnon @kderosa and

          Here is the article that Lipsitch is responding to.https://bostonreview.net/science-nature/jonathan-fuller-models-v-evidence …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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