You seem to think that the right way to evaluate tradeoffs is to be first be as wrong as possible about the facts of the matter.
-
-
Replying to @gcochran99 @JayMan471
Hey, I’m not the one who flubbed the death count by a magnitude. The fact that you keep doubling down on this error is simply adorable though. Maybe you’ll turn out to be right and things go sideways but that looks increasingly unlikely each day as things level off.
2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes -
"Things level off" - it's an infectious disease - it's either spreading to saturation or going extinct. It doesn't "level off" because you're weary of paying attention.
1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes -
Problem for the doomsday guys is that it’s leveling off way before they predicted it should be
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
The concept of "leveling off" is nonsensical. You're anthropomorphizing the virus as an actor that was making an effort but now has given up. It's not - it will only stop when it reaches saturation or goes extinct.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
It would appear that that mr virus graph is leveling off is then going extinct or is that too much anthropomorphizing for you.pic.twitter.com/G8VRqdBdO1
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
You may or may not have noticed that over the past few weeks people have changed their behavior to make it harder for the virus to infect them. Unsurprisingly, this has slowed the spread of the virus - which is still exactly as infectious as it was before.
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Your beloved model predicted the hospital system would be overwhelmed despite this change in behavior you speak of. So in addition to over 200k bodies festooning the streets we’d have countless more due to exceeding hospital capacity. None of that has come to pass.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
"Your beloved model predicted that all life on Earth would be extinguished by that asteroid but so far zero people have died" So far everything is well in line with 1% of the infected dying and infections increasing until they reach 60% of people. Just wait.
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. You have an old 15k line program apparently translated from FORTRAN which gives wildly different results in successive runs which one reviewing programmer likened to sim-city without the graphics. You can’t make this stuff up.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Claiming that novel infectious diseases only stop spreading when they infect enough people that they can no longer spread is the opposite of an extraordinary claim. It's backed by the experience with every single novel disease in history. Your claim is the extraordinary one.
-
-
That’s not my claim at all. I believe the R0 of a heterogenous population not only varies over time but is less than the simplistic static R0, homogeneous population being used. We will reach herd immunity well before 60% like we appear to be seeing.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
- Show replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.