Yes. I think lockdown is failing in red states, and failing more slowly in blue states. I hope that I am wrong and they will not experience epidemics as a result.
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Replying to @asymmetricinfo @HoodlumDoodlum and
But I think the failure of lockdowns is a policy choice, advocated for by people such as yourself, not a law of nature.
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(I, haven't advocated for a failure of lockdowns. I have a semi-prof. job I can do from home for a big corp and havent missed a paycheck yet. I told my family to lockdown in mid Feb and worry that others don't. But you're engaging in as much magical thinking as your opponents.)
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In what way? Do you think I am denying the economic costs, are are you merely surprised that when the economic costs are mentioned, I don't immediately say "Oh, well, lockdowns should end, then"?
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Your reference to "feeling bad" for small business owners seemed inadequate. Your refusal to put the cost/time of the stricter lockdown required under your preferred policy was a dodge. "We must lockdown until we can contain" is vague. I asked for an estimate, for clarity.
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But that's not magical thinking. It's just disagreeing with you. Which one can do non-magically by prioritizing different things. "Lockdown or reopen" is a value judgement. "Will isolating the elderly work"? or "Will lifting lockdown orders bring back much GDP" are empirical q's
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Replying to @asymmetricinfo @HoodlumDoodlum and
You are mingling the arguments. Get clear on the empirical questions, then make the value judgement. I'm clear on one empirical question--"Isolating the elderly" won't work. The other I don't have enough data on to form an opinion; ask me again in a month or so.
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"If we had the right people in charge/if it weren't for those meddling Republicans/Limbaughs pele would agree with me and/or we would have done the right thing ti begin with" is magical thinking. Assume a libertarian-leaning populace...
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It's still a policy choice, and if you're advocating for that choice, you should accept responsibility for that advocacy, not say "Oh, well, it's not my fault, those other jerks would never do it anyway". Just as yes, I accept that policies I have advocated for meant biz failures
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Replying to @asymmetricinfo @HoodlumDoodlum and
If you're advocating for some kind of 2nd best--i.e. "Limbaugh et al are wrong and irresponsible, but influence/represent a lot of politically influential voters, so we're going to have to work with that reality" fine. But you seem to be saying that lifting lockdowns is 1st best.
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The problem is that the permanent government is - at best - incompetent so is simply incapable of implementing track, trace, quarantine. This incompetence is not independent of the shared ideology that views the very idea of quarantines as repellent. The deaths are inevitable.
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